{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d92f4cfb-a75e-4091-bc10-f6477970c701", "symbol": "FME", "name": "Fresenius Medical Care AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.085, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.803, "architecture_energy": 72.003, "architecture_maturity": 18.35, "architecture_confidence": 59.007, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.54, "rotation_up": 74.73, "upward_expansion": 90.92, "deceleration": 48.06, "rotation_down": 12.16, "downward_expansion": 15.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.829334, 42.172, 40.453415, 39.647984 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 41.830002, "trend_reference": 38.754043, "distance_from_trend": 0.079371, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.222407, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.094384, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.695176, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.066886, "excess_performance": -0.107361, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079371, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02202, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.094384, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153066, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146952, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119256, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066886, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.418746, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3188, "relative_activity": 11.714128, "balance": 0.418746, "dry_up": 4.162227, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036423, "annualized_volatility": 0.18977, "from_high_reference": -0.089641, "from_low_reference": 0.253875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.754043, "fair_value_reference": 38.222407, "structural_low": 33.360573, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.024674, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.030842, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.12535, "worst_return": -0.095238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.014931, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.086343, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.139467, "worst_return": -0.239944, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.070723, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.15836, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.246345, "worst_return": -0.551879, "sufficient": true }, { 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39.98017, 38.80632, 38.479762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.369999, "volume": 250, "typical_volume": 131.65, "trend": 38.303907, "fair_value": 38.219915, "relative_strength": -11.402405, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.744555, "energy": 89.776607, "activity_lines": [ 41.708, 40.614758, 39.201696, 38.749532 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.259998, "volume": 629, "typical_volume": 89.6, "trend": 38.436103, "fair_value": 38.221346, "relative_strength": -10.174379, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.562431, "energy": 91.805464, "activity_lines": [ 42.325999, 41.29509, 39.660867, 39.06928 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.200001, "volume": 464, "typical_volume": 112.8, "trend": 38.623994, "fair_value": 38.231308, "relative_strength": -7.65011, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.569164, "energy": 92.375494, "activity_lines": [ 43.084666, 42.011454, 40.184083, 39.441145 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.830002, "volume": 3188, "typical_volume": 272.15, "trend": 38.754043, "fair_value": 38.222407, "relative_strength": -14.695176, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.802881, "energy": 72.003477, "activity_lines": [ 42.829334, 42.172, 40.453415, 39.647984 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }