{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d933b9d2-3d2e-4591-a4fb-fdf1fb578542", "symbol": "KAR", "name": "Karoon Energy Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.407, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.714, "architecture_energy": 25.287, "architecture_maturity": 40.071, "architecture_confidence": 77.341, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.28, "rotation_up": 30.89, "upward_expansion": 15.29, "deceleration": 46.86, "rotation_down": 26.82, "downward_expansion": 62.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.668, 1.597455, 1.73119, 1.781643 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.655, "trend_reference": 1.790901, "distance_from_trend": -0.075884, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.694438, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.023275, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.642338, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.039307, "excess_performance": -0.024398, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075884, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015518, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.023275, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170754, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076423, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215653, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039307, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.343954, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29615760, "relative_activity": 1.041428, "balance": 1.343954, "dry_up": 1.311182, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126772, "annualized_volatility": 0.764421, "from_high_reference": -0.267699, "from_low_reference": 0.318725 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.790901, "fair_value_reference": 1.694438, "structural_low": 1.255, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.0116, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.006679, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.285087, "worst_return": -0.282776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.073298, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.070968, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.311179, "worst_return": -0.150754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.104878, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.114189, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.476562, "worst_return": -0.115385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.104443, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.117501, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.28125, "worst_return": -0.072364, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.203743, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062312, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.259037, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.212687, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.114114, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074928, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018072, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104356, "active": false 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"relative_strength": -12.343133, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.580091, "energy": 72.270311, "activity_lines": [ 1.420333, 1.572, 1.771024, 1.791328 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.79, "volume": 41752380, "typical_volume": 31939432.6, "trend": 1.778979, "fair_value": 1.698735, "relative_strength": 4.983046, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.500969, "energy": 36.777891, "activity_lines": [ 1.549667, 1.585818, 1.763381, 1.792612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.74, "volume": 42731485, "typical_volume": 30224232.5, "trend": 1.786029, "fair_value": 1.696888, "relative_strength": -0.132337, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.880403, "energy": 16.985694, "activity_lines": [ 1.639, 1.596, 1.751095, 1.790097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.655, "volume": 29615760, "typical_volume": 28437642.95, "trend": 1.790901, "fair_value": 1.694438, "relative_strength": -7.642338, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.714227, "energy": 25.286593, "activity_lines": [ 1.668, 1.597455, 1.73119, 1.781643 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }