{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9385379-08bb-435d-85e8-d853bf88e7f9", "symbol": "ECRN", "name": "WisdomTree Corn - EUR Daily Hedged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.186, "architecture_energy": 25.307, "architecture_maturity": 76.356, "architecture_confidence": 76.62, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.44, "rotation_up": 35.5, "upward_expansion": 21.63, "deceleration": 44.09, "rotation_down": 25.7, "downward_expansion": 57.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.8722, 2.835691, 2.875967, 2.918402 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.8315, "trend_reference": 2.955467, "distance_from_trend": -0.041945, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.374115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.160817, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.915846, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.051741, "excess_performance": -0.222633, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041945, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02952, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.160817, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037797, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189158, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075689, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051741, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.308919, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10587, "relative_activity": 0.424555, "balance": 1.308919, "dry_up": 0.719261, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03711, "annualized_volatility": 0.177172, "from_high_reference": -0.118325, "from_low_reference": 0.048704 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.955467, "fair_value_reference": 3.374115, "structural_low": 2.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.009515, "positive_rate": 0.558824, "directional_follow_through": 0.441176, "median_excess_return": -0.014373, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.092986, "worst_return": -0.100313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.012056, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.080786, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.071207, "worst_return": -0.107969, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.040169, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.143493, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.398782, "worst_return": -0.137231, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-24", "close": 2.988, "volume": 43535, "typical_volume": 26482.2, "trend": 2.96845, "fair_value": 3.393134, "relative_strength": -12.213689, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.420759, "energy": 19.226643, "activity_lines": [ 2.869133, 2.832155, 2.896445, 2.934319 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.8535, "volume": 7872, "typical_volume": 25002.75, "trend": 2.963267, "fair_value": 3.383676, "relative_strength": -16.287303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.056235, "energy": 25.842161, "activity_lines": [ 2.877733, 2.834009, 2.886557, 2.926903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.8315, "volume": 10587, "typical_volume": 24936.7, "trend": 2.955467, "fair_value": 3.374115, "relative_strength": -18.915846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.18598, "energy": 25.30714, "activity_lines": [ 2.8722, 2.835691, 2.875967, 2.918402 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }