{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d93add7a-be0f-4c33-b9fa-03b1386ec6e7", "symbol": "300608", "name": "Beijing Si-Tech Information Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.07, "architecture_energy": 45.328, "architecture_maturity": 14.329, "architecture_confidence": 82.161, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.95, "rotation_up": 15.75, "upward_expansion": 6.2, "deceleration": 47.64, "rotation_down": 60.32, "downward_expansion": 79.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.858, 10.098, 11.178619, 11.567462 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.69, "trend_reference": 11.932333, "distance_from_trend": -0.104115, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.777623, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.092347, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.819206, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.087884, "excess_performance": -0.095284, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104115, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028971, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.092347, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.274286, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.148192, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065932, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.087884, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.200337, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74116222, "relative_activity": 0.802384, "balance": 2.200337, "dry_up": 0.81459, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.163992, "annualized_volatility": 0.606988, "from_high_reference": -0.453476, "from_low_reference": 0.318126 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.932333, "fair_value_reference": 11.777623, "structural_low": 8.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.029633, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": 0.018415, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.440838, "worst_return": -0.149521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.180432, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.070316, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.676798, "worst_return": -0.219353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.110822, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.017542, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.254306, "worst_return": -0.108401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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58.902987, "activity_lines": [ 10.568, 11.407636, 12.102286, 12.182559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.94, "volume": 67071016, "typical_volume": 88726338.45, "trend": 12.048333, "fair_value": 11.769247, "relative_strength": -27.5789, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.543932, "energy": 77.391608, "activity_lines": [ 9.911333, 10.810182, 11.780905, 11.977892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.01, "volume": 74890519, "typical_volume": 90213490.65, "trend": 11.978333, "fair_value": 11.765587, "relative_strength": -26.649043, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.994979, "energy": 75.609812, "activity_lines": [ 9.455333, 10.313636, 11.485524, 11.781871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.91, "volume": 84897037, "typical_volume": 91478887.0, "trend": 11.945, "fair_value": 11.768401, "relative_strength": -17.491592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.408253, "energy": 67.241464, "activity_lines": [ 9.5, 10.080545, 11.290143, 11.64843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.69, "volume": 74116222, "typical_volume": 92369984.8, "trend": 11.932333, "fair_value": 11.777623, "relative_strength": -14.819206, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.070284, "energy": 45.327704, "activity_lines": [ 9.858, 10.098, 11.178619, 11.567462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }