{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d93c43bb-65ca-4b5f-b5d9-119769593243", "symbol": "6001", "name": "Halwani Bros. Co. Ltd.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.341, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.016, "architecture_energy": 19.811, "architecture_maturity": 39.514, "architecture_confidence": 62.236, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.59, "rotation_up": 11.99, "upward_expansion": 17.97, "deceleration": 63.51, "rotation_down": 54.37, "downward_expansion": 60.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.218667, 31.541455, 31.467333, 31.358236 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 31.040001, "trend_reference": 31.565333, "distance_from_trend": -0.016643, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.777692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.32194, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.466184, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.062236, "excess_performance": -0.030406, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016643, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026843, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.32194, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031141, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074662, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079756, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.062236, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.711606, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 146203, "relative_activity": 0.630922, "balance": 0.711606, "dry_up": 0.727289, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043368, "annualized_volatility": 0.15007, "from_high_reference": -0.350084, "from_low_reference": 0.14963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.565333, "fair_value_reference": 45.777692, "structural_low": 27.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.014599, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.016158, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.129791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.029845, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.028232, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.077358, "worst_return": -0.175087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.054948, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.097903, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.075472, "worst_return": -0.234386, 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086911, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016981, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.131673, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122024, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": 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-5.142443, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.033948, "energy": 31.533976, "activity_lines": [ 32.289333, 31.803636, 31.468761, 31.486365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.6, "volume": 195322, "typical_volume": 219879.8, "trend": 31.705333, "fair_value": 46.497308, "relative_strength": -6.477128, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.716546, "energy": 32.048711, "activity_lines": [ 32.168, 31.818181, 31.520095, 31.477075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.02, "volume": 166885, "typical_volume": 221792.9, "trend": 31.659333, "fair_value": 46.246795, "relative_strength": -8.258858, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.475047, "energy": 13.65696, "activity_lines": [ 31.806667, 31.721818, 31.507238, 31.43286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.08, "volume": 165726, "typical_volume": 225121.8, "trend": 31.617333, "fair_value": 46.001795, "relative_strength": -5.689997, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.727182, "energy": 5.039808, "activity_lines": [ 31.485333, 31.636363, 31.492762, 31.395484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.040001, "volume": 146203, "typical_volume": 231728.95, "trend": 31.565333, "fair_value": 45.777692, "relative_strength": -7.466184, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.015794, "energy": 19.810869, "activity_lines": [ 31.218667, 31.541455, 31.467333, 31.358236 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }