{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d93fc8a4-aa3d-466a-a61b-2a7d6231e63d", "symbol": "ALBI", "name": "Gascogne SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.818, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.782, "architecture_energy": 15.803, "architecture_maturity": 24.341, "architecture_confidence": 77.936, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.39, "rotation_up": 24.61, "upward_expansion": 10.24, "deceleration": 43.12, "rotation_down": 33.21, "downward_expansion": 62.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.153333, 2.159636, 2.168667, 2.177118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.2, "trend_reference": 2.190667, "distance_from_trend": 0.00426, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.685429, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.180764, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.432601, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.009009, "excess_performance": -0.06232, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00426, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022896, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.180764, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018942, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094326, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064861, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009009, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.48755, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4955, "relative_activity": 1.04171, "balance": 0.48755, "dry_up": 0.760785, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062937, "annualized_volatility": 0.343639, "from_high_reference": -0.185185, "from_low_reference": 0.1 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.190667, "fair_value_reference": 2.685429, "structural_low": 2.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.014085, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.037205, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.088525, "worst_return": -0.154728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.03662, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.025149, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.277143, "worst_return": -0.155405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.054054, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.105018, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.165714, "worst_return": -0.290541, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.04386, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.10984, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.102703, "worst_return": -0.295775, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-02-24", "end": "2023-05-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.028103, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-05-26", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.116505, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.028169, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.032143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099662, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.020243, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089431, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.131579, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033613, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018182, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.122807, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009009, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.05, "volume": 7999, "typical_volume": 12349.15, "trend": 4.172, "fair_value": 3.987756, "relative_strength": -4.302282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.79074, "energy": 22.399618, "activity_lines": [ 4.077333, 4.089091, 4.100286, 4.122387 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 4.04, "volume": 1405, "typical_volume": 10191.85, "trend": 4.159667, "fair_value": 3.992756, "relative_strength": -5.32283, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.998375, "energy": 29.285077, "activity_lines": [ 4.061333, 4.08, 4.09281, 4.113871 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 4.0, "volume": 4865, "typical_volume": 9507.3, "trend": 4.145667, "fair_value": 3.9975, "relative_strength": -7.015542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.585821, "energy": 38.692473, "activity_lines": [ 4.036, 4.063455, 4.082762, 4.10357 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 4.0, "volume": 2569, "typical_volume": 8851.25, "trend": 4.132333, "fair_value": 4.001218, "relative_strength": -6.257941, "stage": 4, 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"energy": 12.880894, "activity_lines": [ 2.172, 2.159636, 2.181429, 2.189763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.16, "volume": 1090, "typical_volume": 5177.65, "trend": 2.195333, "fair_value": 2.735237, "relative_strength": -8.053968, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.177159, "energy": 12.708569, "activity_lines": [ 2.173333, 2.157091, 2.178952, 2.187398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.18, "volume": 1649, "typical_volume": 4981.2, "trend": 2.196667, "fair_value": 2.722929, "relative_strength": -7.010194, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.305942, "energy": 14.301575, "activity_lines": [ 2.182667, 2.161818, 2.178667, 2.186409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.18, "volume": 4264, "typical_volume": 5041.85, "trend": 2.197333, "fair_value": 2.710365, "relative_strength": -7.219929, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.139442, "energy": 12.092156, "activity_lines": [ 2.184, 2.168364, 2.178381, 2.185333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.06, "volume": 3607, "typical_volume": 4680.2, "trend": 2.19, "fair_value": 2.697481, "relative_strength": -13.385798, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.779991, "energy": 27.339114, "activity_lines": [ 2.14, 2.149818, 2.166667, 2.176473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.2, "volume": 4955, "typical_volume": 4756.6, "trend": 2.190667, "fair_value": 2.685429, "relative_strength": -9.432601, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.782116, "energy": 15.802574, "activity_lines": [ 2.153333, 2.159636, 2.168667, 2.177118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }