{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d94176da-5c73-4476-adf3-96992710d04b", "symbol": "300697", "name": "Jiangyin Electrical Alloy Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.068, "architecture_energy": 65.221, "architecture_maturity": 13.783, "architecture_confidence": 79.041, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.97, "rotation_up": 10.01, "upward_expansion": 13.68, "deceleration": 38.34, "rotation_down": 72.64, "downward_expansion": 89.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.642, 14.296769, 15.156059, 15.504637 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.94, "trend_reference": 16.104213, "distance_from_trend": -0.072292, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.727468, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.273932, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.669234, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.206585, "excess_performance": -0.213985, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072292, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034045, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.273932, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.23462, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116692, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004604, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.206585, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.566699, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64458643, "relative_activity": 1.816617, "balance": 1.566699, "dry_up": 1.223855, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119659, "annualized_volatility": 0.539712, "from_high_reference": -0.347028, "from_low_reference": 0.259696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.104213, "fair_value_reference": 11.727468, "structural_low": 11.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.076923, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.008685, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.282162, "worst_return": -0.157746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.074396, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.074172, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.333211, "worst_return": -0.191177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.079389, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.094607, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.479017, "worst_return": -0.19466, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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14.304, 15.355449, 15.72777, 16.025474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.79, "volume": 33468604, "typical_volume": 34149105.85, "trend": 16.30588, "fair_value": 11.656421, "relative_strength": -22.132975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.019141, "energy": 80.843707, "activity_lines": [ 13.476667, 14.785589, 15.439977, 15.791181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.09, "volume": 46841284, "typical_volume": 34034630.65, "trend": 16.165547, "fair_value": 11.685154, "relative_strength": -18.728873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.94897, "energy": 79.243324, "activity_lines": [ 13.164, 14.336135, 15.202804, 15.583705 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.94, "volume": 64458643, "typical_volume": 35482787.65, "trend": 16.104213, "fair_value": 11.727468, "relative_strength": -11.669234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.0683, "energy": 65.221451, "activity_lines": [ 13.642, 14.296769, 15.156059, 15.504637 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }