{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9430e50-b5fb-454e-a91b-cfc3c5300660", "symbol": "BTM", "name": "Penguin International Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 6.023, "architecture_energy": 15.435, "architecture_maturity": 19.615, "architecture_confidence": 69.454, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.28, "rotation_up": 50.29, "upward_expansion": 31.87, "deceleration": 44.86, "rotation_down": 17.54, "downward_expansion": 20.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.528667, 1.502, 1.504615, 1.529281 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.52, "trend_reference": 1.527083, "distance_from_trend": -0.004638, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.024781, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.483244, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.290236, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.171642, "excess_performance": 0.016807, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004638, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059343, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.483244, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045964, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082902, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124937, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.171642, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.223077, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2300, "relative_activity": 0.202732, "balance": 1.223077, "dry_up": 0.460555, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057499, "annualized_volatility": 0.424445, "from_high_reference": -0.127778, "from_low_reference": 0.414414 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.527083, "fair_value_reference": 1.024781, "structural_low": 1.26828, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.00578, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.005417, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.178571, "worst_return": -0.038168, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.026059, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.025096, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.201996, "worst_return": -0.02924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.046512, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.022925, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.222322, "worst_return": 0.029412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.040935, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005618, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.145834, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", 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1.51314, 1.520799 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.58, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 11895.0, "trend": 1.500287, "fair_value": 1.009767, "relative_strength": -1.414212, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.870359, "energy": 10.315183, "activity_lines": [ 1.486667, 1.481677, 1.513842, 1.526695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.53, "volume": 5100, "typical_volume": 10690.0, "trend": 1.509979, "fair_value": 1.014833, "relative_strength": -5.987924, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.176639, "energy": 8.416839, "activity_lines": [ 1.504, 1.490727, 1.510465, 1.528612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.52, "volume": 12300, "typical_volume": 11255.0, "trend": 1.51966, "fair_value": 1.019807, "relative_strength": -7.195455, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.831302, "energy": 14.769585, "activity_lines": [ 1.516667, 1.496545, 1.507056, 1.529259 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.52, "volume": 2300, "typical_volume": 11345.0, "trend": 1.527083, "fair_value": 1.024781, "relative_strength": -8.290236, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.023289, "energy": 15.434813, "activity_lines": [ 1.528667, 1.502, 1.504615, 1.529281 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }