{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d94cf569-d48e-4c0f-a934-58f9f8580538", "symbol": "002576", "name": "Jiangsu Tongda Power Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.873, "architecture_energy": 54.847, "architecture_maturity": 30.774, "architecture_confidence": 91.904, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.21, "rotation_up": 19.07, "upward_expansion": 8.86, "deceleration": 54.55, "rotation_down": 58.52, "downward_expansion": 79.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.920667, 14.223096, 15.510725, 16.324301 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.48, "trend_reference": 17.176993, "distance_from_trend": -0.157012, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.632208, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.073707, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.969418, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.186517, "excess_performance": -0.193917, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157012, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049699, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.073707, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.287136, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199694, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080286, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.186517, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.542446, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23233061, "relative_activity": 0.965391, "balance": 0.542446, "dry_up": 0.768117, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10222, "annualized_volatility": 0.432956, "from_high_reference": -0.329319, "from_low_reference": 0.174371 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.176993, "fair_value_reference": 15.632208, "structural_low": 12.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.039293, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.032502, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.407128, "worst_return": -0.205975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.022451, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.085357, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.477977, "worst_return": -0.157763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.006796, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.081529, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.518222, "worst_return": -0.226358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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16.390246, 16.998429 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.91, "volume": 16309303, "typical_volume": 25156440.45, "trend": 17.364327, "fair_value": 15.68652, "relative_strength": -26.983896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.193853, "energy": 84.501733, "activity_lines": [ 13.655333, 14.482376, 15.975913, 16.702924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.29, "volume": 19734926, "typical_volume": 24549106.75, "trend": 17.274327, "fair_value": 15.653549, "relative_strength": -17.396935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.874386, "energy": 69.554977, "activity_lines": [ 13.758, 14.287612, 15.722867, 16.504581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.48, "volume": 23233061, "typical_volume": 24065967.3, "trend": 17.176993, "fair_value": 15.632208, "relative_strength": -19.969418, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.873295, "energy": 54.846511, "activity_lines": [ 13.920667, 14.223096, 15.510725, 16.324301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }