{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d951328e-5292-4f90-b76e-0f1c61d4e308", "symbol": "ETHH-B", "name": "Purpose Ether CAD ETF Non-Currency Hedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.224, "architecture_energy": 22.626, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 62.32, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.72, "rotation_up": 30.91, "upward_expansion": 19.44, "deceleration": 46.89, "rotation_down": 19.98, "downward_expansion": 53.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.811333, 8.53, 8.830048, 9.115914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8.97, "trend_reference": 9.711667, "distance_from_trend": -0.076369, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.839135, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.301355, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.110742, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.053797, "excess_performance": -0.174219, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076369, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1729, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.301355, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131297, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.401107, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056916, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.053797, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.549704, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 286000, "relative_activity": 1.0828, "balance": 0.549704, "dry_up": 1.160035, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080182, "annualized_volatility": 0.466128, "from_high_reference": -0.606924, "from_low_reference": 0.240664 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.711667, "fair_value_reference": 12.839135, "structural_low": 7.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.045368, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.055412, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.433884, "worst_return": -0.341667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.266153, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.180655, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.903382, "worst_return": -0.270833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.468954, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.491463, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.435722, "worst_return": -0.410417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.267775, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.164845, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.368601, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.210708, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.145093, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", 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-45.488412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.862161, "energy": 57.658365, "activity_lines": [ 8.126, 8.304909, 9.024476, 9.465935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.66, "volume": 349900, "typical_volume": 258720.0, "trend": 10.241, "fair_value": 12.834776, "relative_strength": -43.437699, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.67375, "energy": 45.303893, "activity_lines": [ 8.336667, 8.291091, 8.959857, 9.352473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.81, "volume": 241500, "typical_volume": 254995.0, "trend": 10.083, "fair_value": 12.835801, "relative_strength": -41.677211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.934832, "energy": 30.02564, "activity_lines": [ 8.542, 8.340909, 8.910429, 9.260151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.77, "volume": 348200, "typical_volume": 264245.0, "trend": 9.892667, "fair_value": 12.837083, "relative_strength": -40.740234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.330333, "energy": 23.944037, "activity_lines": [ 8.686, 8.41, 8.858429, 9.175441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.97, "volume": 286000, "typical_volume": 264130.0, "trend": 9.711667, "fair_value": 12.839135, "relative_strength": -40.110742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.224018, "energy": 22.626373, "activity_lines": [ 8.811333, 8.53, 8.830048, 9.115914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }