{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9539338-ba98-4fcf-96b5-24898f812738", "symbol": "VO", "name": "VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS VANGUARD MID-CAP ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.597, "architecture_energy": 61.906, "architecture_maturity": 44.974, "architecture_confidence": 82.426, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.31, "rotation_up": 63.0, "upward_expansion": 85.25, "deceleration": 56.03, "rotation_down": 23.86, "downward_expansion": 9.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 81.354667, 80.847766, 79.550859, 78.174281 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 82.69, "trend_reference": 76.656874, "distance_from_trend": 0.078703, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 65.259686, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.267092, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.218728, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.106025, "excess_performance": -0.0196, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078703, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03669, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.267092, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045044, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012187, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036177, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.106025, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.107216, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15991944, "relative_activity": 1.363743, "balance": 2.107216, "dry_up": 1.63338, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021899, "annualized_volatility": 0.10501, "from_high_reference": -0.007799, "from_low_reference": 0.203797 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 76.656874, "fair_value_reference": 65.259686, "structural_low": 69.734869, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.012868, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.003988, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.052553, "worst_return": -0.089088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.011199, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.018624, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.082184, "worst_return": -0.091198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.053426, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.027139, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.139907, "worst_return": -0.171542, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 11130332.05, "trend": 76.372044, "fair_value": 65.067129, "relative_strength": 0.028258, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.845191, "energy": 56.127008, "activity_lines": [ 80.670667, 80.351035, 79.047345, 77.766671 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 82.69, "volume": 15991944, "typical_volume": 11726506.35, "trend": 76.656874, "fair_value": 65.259686, "relative_strength": -1.218728, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.597126, "energy": 61.905908, "activity_lines": [ 81.354667, 80.847766, 79.550859, 78.174281 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }