{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d95437b7-cb2a-42af-9291-1a312632f301", "symbol": "HIBL", "name": "DIREXION DAILY S&P 500 HIGH BETA BULL 3X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.142, "architecture_energy": 20.464, "architecture_maturity": 74.486, "architecture_confidence": 91.494, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.82, "rotation_up": 21.4, "upward_expansion": 53.29, "deceleration": 90.96, "rotation_down": 39.35, "downward_expansion": 21.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 100.6202, 106.030167, 105.983973, 98.650313 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 108.17, "trend_reference": 89.709203, "distance_from_trend": 0.205785, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.867079, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.126523, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 26.574754, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.453702, "excess_performance": 0.328078, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.205785, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.200348, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.126523, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.240937, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.265748, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.320794, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.453702, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.784521, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 239461, "relative_activity": 0.744715, "balance": 0.784521, "dry_up": 0.854978, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.190129, "annualized_volatility": 0.734437, "from_high_reference": -0.216311, "from_low_reference": 1.423269 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 89.709203, "fair_value_reference": 50.867079, "structural_low": 51.92, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.014795, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.034763, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.169685, "worst_return": -0.17209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.053473, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.077055, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.217799, "worst_return": -0.34585, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.201435, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.081146, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.056035, "worst_return": -0.62595, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 96.75, "volume": 278557, "typical_volume": 349299.0, "trend": 86.98787, "fair_value": 49.68197, "relative_strength": 21.289456, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.998515, "energy": 24.595794, "activity_lines": [ 110.214686, 113.167071, 104.941775, 96.479298 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 96.43, "volume": 234205, "typical_volume": 332267.45, "trend": 87.852203, "fair_value": 50.033268, "relative_strength": 20.500536, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.599231, "energy": 20.899757, "activity_lines": [ 104.023267, 110.220028, 105.191269, 97.088468 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 92.52, "volume": 347440, "typical_volume": 329273.35, "trend": 88.629203, "fair_value": 50.393282, "relative_strength": 13.36693, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.705307, "energy": 18.092881, "activity_lines": [ 98.833733, 106.583333, 104.917526, 97.389616 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 108.17, "volume": 239461, "typical_volume": 321547.2, "trend": 89.709203, "fair_value": 50.867079, "relative_strength": 26.574754, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.141991, "energy": 20.463825, "activity_lines": [ 100.6202, 106.030167, 105.983973, 98.650313 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }