{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d95461ae-dd6e-4d3a-9c94-97f3b938632c", "symbol": "688611", "name": "Hangzhou Kelin Electric Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.522, "architecture_energy": 46.7, "architecture_maturity": 6.76, "architecture_confidence": 52.482, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.58, "rotation_up": 14.13, "upward_expansion": 22.11, "deceleration": 54.28, "rotation_down": 65.59, "downward_expansion": 47.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.148665, 62.529453, 66.393856, 65.253118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 60.099998, "trend_reference": 63.902, "distance_from_trend": -0.059497, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.111995, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.815052, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.144169, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.004009, "excess_performance": 0.047213, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059497, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115315, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.815052, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.56134, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.101442, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.283405, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004009, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.677878, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10354860, "relative_activity": 1.309981, "balance": 3.677878, "dry_up": 1.131548, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15112, "annualized_volatility": 0.555933, "from_high_reference": -0.305042, "from_low_reference": 0.638495 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.902, "fair_value_reference": 33.111995, "structural_low": 49.209999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.092674, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.115229, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.034118, "worst_return": -0.15123, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.00295, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019188, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.048253, "worst_return": -0.042353, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.021882, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037543, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055648, "worst_return": -0.099412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"energy": 23.060488, "activity_lines": [ 72.215999, 74.029999, 70.154666, 67.142709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 55.16, "volume": 7498364, "typical_volume": 7502064.2, "trend": 63.179666, "fair_value": 32.428811, "relative_strength": 7.973698, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.016995, "energy": 16.817502, "activity_lines": [ 65.994666, 70.558726, 69.09719, 66.634193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.52, "volume": 11229578, "typical_volume": 7667858.55, "trend": 63.423333, "fair_value": 32.651978, "relative_strength": 6.459168, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.81603, "energy": 33.91165, "activity_lines": [ 61.377999, 67.403817, 68.094666, 66.140021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.169998, "volume": 6694902, "typical_volume": 7736884.1, "trend": 63.593666, "fair_value": 32.851788, "relative_strength": 0.793598, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.689902, "energy": 42.29304, "activity_lines": [ 57.516666, 64.140726, 66.896809, 65.478516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.099998, "volume": 10354860, "typical_volume": 7904590.3, "trend": 63.902, "fair_value": 33.111995, "relative_strength": 10.144169, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.522272, "energy": 46.700161, "activity_lines": [ 57.148665, 62.529453, 66.393856, 65.253118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }