{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9552b0b-8c8e-40a5-841a-02e0d3b446ac", "symbol": "ULTP", "name": "Ultimate Products Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 42.116, "architecture_energy": 64.978, "architecture_maturity": 15.587, "architecture_confidence": 59.113, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.72, "rotation_up": 75.5, "upward_expansion": 66.24, "deceleration": 18.09, "rotation_down": 16.54, "downward_expansion": 22.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.544867, 0.514055, 0.487545, 0.481031 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.554, "trend_reference": 0.483913, "distance_from_trend": 0.144834, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.881012, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.371178, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.621605, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.02911, "excess_performance": -0.022125, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.144834, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047011, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.371178, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149906, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026216, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.223928, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02911, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.056269, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 283582, "relative_activity": 0.445924, "balance": 1.056269, "dry_up": 0.999885, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096757, "annualized_volatility": 0.43343, "from_high_reference": -0.136756, "from_low_reference": 0.378109 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.483913, "fair_value_reference": 0.881012, "structural_low": 0.402, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.052632, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.043024, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.170516, "worst_return": 0.042592, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.138294, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.085824, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.284791, "worst_return": -0.008204, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.01439, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076881, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.036983, "worst_return": -0.008204, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"energy": 12.032538, "activity_lines": [ 0.4786, 0.466691, 0.459061, 0.465981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.572, "volume": 1349312, "typical_volume": 749544.6, "trend": 0.482541, "fair_value": 0.887951, "relative_strength": 1.531728, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.438082, "energy": 51.797125, "activity_lines": [ 0.5114, 0.486718, 0.470141, 0.471823 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.554, "volume": 345373, "typical_volume": 687955.6, "trend": 0.482736, "fair_value": 0.884278, "relative_strength": -2.574931, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.956318, "energy": 62.092965, "activity_lines": [ 0.5316, 0.501109, 0.479028, 0.476433 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.554, "volume": 283582, "typical_volume": 635942.7, "trend": 0.483913, "fair_value": 0.881012, "relative_strength": -2.621605, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.115558, "energy": 64.978359, "activity_lines": [ 0.544867, 0.514055, 0.487545, 0.481031 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }