{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d95808b1-52ce-479c-a4a0-cea7d84be2e5", "symbol": "9510", "name": "National Building and Marketing Co.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.722, "architecture_energy": 22.55, "architecture_maturity": 25.588, "architecture_confidence": 58.952, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.58, "rotation_up": 23.62, "upward_expansion": 15.2, "deceleration": 60.37, "rotation_down": 37.92, "downward_expansion": 60.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.62, 42.910545, 42.329334, 44.178667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 42.900002, "trend_reference": 48.582333, "distance_from_trend": -0.116963, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 168.564872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.745499, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.935107, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.356339, "excess_performance": -0.32451, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116963, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19579, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.745499, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009716, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.379351, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.163483, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.356339, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.942737, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1418, "relative_activity": 0.188156, "balance": 0.942737, "dry_up": 0.278784, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099372, "annualized_volatility": 0.737572, "from_high_reference": -0.702083, "from_low_reference": 0.18705 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.582333, "fair_value_reference": 168.564872, "structural_low": 36.139999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.000957, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006881, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.089366, "worst_return": -0.122807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.049378, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.10656, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.065801, "worst_return": -0.195402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.147579, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.144211, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.099567, "worst_return": -0.494828, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095385, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067524, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028226, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096672, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.108772, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.041188, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064975, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074713, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.749722, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009887, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 300.0, "volume": 10092, "typical_volume": 732.6, "trend": 247.426665, "fair_value": 277.478504, "relative_strength": 15.622363, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.140319, "energy": 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.48, "volume": 2398, "typical_volume": 7785.6, "trend": 50.554, "fair_value": 171.273205, "relative_strength": -41.677984, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.735622, "energy": 16.359468, "activity_lines": [ 44.552, 43.165818, 42.673905, 45.313914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.599998, "volume": 1313, "typical_volume": 7480.4, "trend": 49.542333, "fair_value": 169.924487, "relative_strength": -42.931606, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.707634, "energy": 17.676656, "activity_lines": [ 42.989333, 42.758181, 42.320952, 44.607204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.900002, "volume": 1418, "typical_volume": 7536.3, "trend": 48.582333, "fair_value": 168.564872, "relative_strength": -37.935107, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.72239, "energy": 22.549801, "activity_lines": [ 42.62, 42.910545, 42.329334, 44.178667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }