{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9580ae9-54e0-4502-9298-e38f6b7d4d8b", "symbol": "MCO", "name": "Moody's Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 78.725, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 37.94, "architecture_energy": 67.641, "architecture_maturity": 10.001, "architecture_confidence": 48.449, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.29, "rotation_up": 70.79, "upward_expansion": 63.13, "deceleration": 24.58, "rotation_down": 16.48, "downward_expansion": 23.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 8551.401302, 8382.796875, 8134.684129, 8057.874031 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8120.0, "trend_reference": 8120.071794, "distance_from_trend": -9e-06, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8158.44838, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.004713, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.109461, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.148785, "excess_performance": -0.094118, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -9e-06, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030284, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.004713, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006482, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071095, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119328, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.148785, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.118324, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 557, "relative_activity": 7.635367, "balance": 0.118324, "dry_up": 2.001371, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035656, "annualized_volatility": 0.465863, "from_high_reference": -0.170761, "from_low_reference": 0.132806 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8120.071794, "fair_value_reference": 8158.44838, "structural_low": 7168.042969, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.056316, "positive_rate": 0.090909, "directional_follow_through": 0.090909, "median_excess_return": -0.054062, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.028171, "worst_return": -0.248578, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.071828, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.118465, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.000212, "worst_return": -0.176907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.069592, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.129133, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.02621, "worst_return": 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8393.933052, 8121.894996, 8059.833987 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8120.0, "volume": 557, "typical_volume": 72.95, "trend": 8120.071794, "fair_value": 8158.44838, "relative_strength": -7.109461, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.940033, "energy": 67.641351, "activity_lines": [ 8551.401302, 8382.796875, 8134.684129, 8057.874031 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }