{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9585c2e-7a4e-4394-a669-d8c892a026d2", "symbol": "4558", "name": "ALFORMER Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.906, "architecture_energy": 52.989, "architecture_maturity": 15.864, "architecture_confidence": 89.711, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.11, "rotation_up": 14.08, "upward_expansion": 9.1, "deceleration": 43.84, "rotation_down": 63.54, "downward_expansion": 82.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.113333, 17.4, 18.126429, 18.45957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.9, "trend_reference": 18.808333, "distance_from_trend": -0.048294, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.720146, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.304047, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.616617, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.067708, "excess_performance": -0.50908, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048294, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037937, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.304047, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065235, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.396166, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009827, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.067708, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.17903, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 135006, "relative_activity": 0.409548, "balance": 0.17903, "dry_up": 0.461448, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072411, "annualized_volatility": 0.250196, "from_high_reference": -0.37303, "from_low_reference": 0.151125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.808333, "fair_value_reference": 25.720146, "structural_low": 15.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.026794, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.539568, "worst_return": -0.225694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.007912, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.051472, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.257576, "worst_return": -0.304655, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.039324, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.137079, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.15507, "worst_return": -0.398952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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-44.271227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.733898, "energy": 71.113279, "activity_lines": [ 17.51, 18.037273, 18.644524, 18.835806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.0, "volume": 158383, "typical_volume": 328021.05, "trend": 18.933333, "fair_value": 25.810895, "relative_strength": -45.19949, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.016636, "energy": 79.687148, "activity_lines": [ 16.926667, 17.582727, 18.364048, 18.639247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.1, "volume": 164000, "typical_volume": 325720.55, "trend": 18.851667, "fair_value": 25.764928, "relative_strength": -41.645825, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.620969, "energy": 71.193137, "activity_lines": [ 16.84, 17.395455, 18.203095, 18.520968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 17.9, "volume": 135006, "typical_volume": 329646.65, "trend": 18.808333, "fair_value": 25.720146, "relative_strength": -39.616617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.905585, "energy": 52.989039, "activity_lines": [ 17.113333, 17.4, 18.126429, 18.45957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }