{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d95a035d-8b77-4136-897a-135d29b29b5d", "symbol": "XD5S", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI EMU UCITS ETF 2C - GBP Hedged", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.331, "architecture_energy": 69.765, "architecture_maturity": 59.969, "architecture_confidence": 87.288, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.78, "rotation_up": 59.59, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 64.13, "rotation_down": 27.43, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 4928.216667, 4903.645455, 4805.555952, 4710.38871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5034.0, "trend_reference": 4608.483333, "distance_from_trend": 0.092333, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3728.533219, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.350129, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.19947, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.120784, "excess_performance": 0.069548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092333, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046831, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.350129, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070676, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.051995, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025231, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120784, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.654012, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70602, "relative_activity": 6.31692, "balance": 1.654012, "dry_up": 3.028345, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018801, "annualized_volatility": 0.169656, "from_high_reference": -0.000794, "from_low_reference": 0.285495 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4608.483333, "fair_value_reference": 3728.533219, "structural_low": 4172.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.006489, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": 0.003403, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.091906, "worst_return": -0.093459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.014309, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.002134, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.103319, "worst_return": -0.055724, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.067101, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.02831, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.172547, "worst_return": -0.162888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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4799.368182, 4664.615476, 4597.755914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4869.5, "volume": 636, "typical_volume": 4619.95, "trend": 4534.166667, "fair_value": 3678.704693, "relative_strength": 6.078181, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.684344, "energy": 85.520231, "activity_lines": [ 4890.5, 4825.418182, 4693.039286, 4620.71828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4828.25, "volume": 50524, "typical_volume": 7123.4, "trend": 4551.858333, "fair_value": 3690.573283, "relative_strength": 4.081794, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.5981, "energy": 73.73787, "activity_lines": [ 4874.0, 4837.868182, 4716.242857, 4639.691398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4870.75, "volume": 11756, "typical_volume": 7629.9, "trend": 4571.283333, "fair_value": 3702.425847, "relative_strength": 3.584065, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.148569, "energy": 63.745265, "activity_lines": [ 4870.533333, 4853.340909, 4742.486905, 4660.265054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4903.75, "volume": 2505, "typical_volume": 7662.05, "trend": 4589.55, "fair_value": 3715.031616, "relative_strength": 2.898617, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.224179, "energy": 60.06497, "activity_lines": [ 4879.833333, 4868.618182, 4769.217857, 4681.714516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5034.0, "volume": 70602, "typical_volume": 11176.65, "trend": 4608.483333, "fair_value": 3728.533219, "relative_strength": 5.19947, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.331293, "energy": 69.765074, "activity_lines": [ 4928.216667, 4903.645455, 4805.555952, 4710.38871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }