{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d968500c-cf40-4d6d-918c-ce049f875ea4", "symbol": "NALT", "name": "NBI Liquid Alternatives ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.407, "architecture_energy": 17.986, "architecture_maturity": 24.424, "architecture_confidence": 62.09, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.33, "rotation_up": 38.4, "upward_expansion": 31.93, "deceleration": 49.16, "rotation_down": 27.51, "downward_expansion": 25.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.766667, 22.72834, 22.865762, 22.940798 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.52, "trend_reference": 22.874313, "distance_from_trend": -0.01549, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.677249, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038877, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.76236, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.024784, "excess_performance": -0.095637, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01549, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022911, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.038877, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045952, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087624, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058765, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024784, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.751515, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3500, "relative_activity": 0.316885, "balance": 0.751515, "dry_up": 1.054776, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012561, "annualized_volatility": 0.090076, "from_high_reference": -0.059785, "from_low_reference": 0.152882 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.874313, "fair_value_reference": 21.677249, "structural_low": 21.975362, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.006122, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.019339, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.016667, "worst_return": -0.030625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.012354, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.017452, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.046821, "worst_return": -0.063803, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001974, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.048626, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.094858, "worst_return": 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false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.016235, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018767, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008392, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.003221, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", 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22.98028, 22.928958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.799999, "volume": 9400, "typical_volume": 13530.0, "trend": 22.752999, "fair_value": 21.65917, "relative_strength": -5.437528, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.925431, "energy": 32.176485, "activity_lines": [ 22.648043, 22.709674, 22.948607, 22.935076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.15, "volume": 18600, "typical_volume": 13400.0, "trend": 22.802489, "fair_value": 21.666877, "relative_strength": -4.016794, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.311505, "energy": 7.253416, "activity_lines": [ 22.824, 22.76738, 22.949433, 22.960689 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.82, "volume": 15100, "typical_volume": 12610.0, "trend": 22.845824, "fair_value": 21.672585, "relative_strength": -4.76937, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.898888, "energy": 11.779148, "activity_lines": [ 22.86, 22.771859, 22.919188, 22.961819 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.52, "volume": 3500, "typical_volume": 11045.0, "trend": 22.874313, "fair_value": 21.677249, "relative_strength": -8.76236, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.407118, "energy": 17.986442, "activity_lines": [ 22.766667, 22.72834, 22.865762, 22.940798 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }