{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d96cf5ba-10b4-4140-b8d4-d9ea04f8ac42", "symbol": "SFPI", "name": "GROUPE SFPI SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.255, "architecture_energy": 35.955, "architecture_maturity": 33.723, "architecture_confidence": 60.853, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.53, "rotation_up": 39.01, "upward_expansion": 68.59, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 25.38, "downward_expansion": 11.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.068, 2.068818, 2.018484, 1.939672 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.06, "trend_reference": 1.847369, "distance_from_trend": 0.115099, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.881792, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.094701, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.000554, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.197674, "excess_performance": 0.144363, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.115099, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067616, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.094701, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024175, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020006, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010512, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.197674, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.83669, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36963, "relative_activity": 0.250429, "balance": 0.83669, "dry_up": 0.577868, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057746, "annualized_volatility": 0.384314, "from_high_reference": -0.169355, "from_low_reference": 0.337662 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.847369, "fair_value_reference": 1.881792, "structural_low": 1.54, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.019561, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011713, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.219512, "worst_return": -0.225941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.025451, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.029357, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.198606, "worst_return": -0.294979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.076095, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033026, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.106253, "worst_return": -0.317992, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.112993, 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"2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.161111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061561, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.123222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022222, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117794, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": 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"fair_value": 1.87593, "relative_strength": 3.324441, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.203561, "energy": 34.928751, "activity_lines": [ 2.040048, 2.048464, 1.963618, 1.889969 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.11, "volume": 172261, "typical_volume": 149672.1, "trend": 1.827536, "fair_value": 1.877738, "relative_strength": 7.488287, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.216148, "energy": 37.174521, "activity_lines": [ 2.057333, 2.064237, 1.98678, 1.908967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.08, "volume": 62251, "typical_volume": 150606.15, "trend": 1.836536, "fair_value": 1.879878, "relative_strength": 4.768348, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.156449, "energy": 33.914229, "activity_lines": [ 2.066667, 2.069942, 2.004656, 1.925255 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.06, "volume": 36963, "typical_volume": 147598.6, "trend": 1.847369, "fair_value": 1.881792, "relative_strength": 2.000554, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.254636, "energy": 35.954901, "activity_lines": [ 2.068, 2.068818, 2.018484, 1.939672 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }