{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d96fcdbb-12b1-4cfb-ab62-975cbd5b2dc1", "symbol": "AMBICAAGAR", "name": "Ambica Agarbathies Aroma & Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 85.403, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.88, "architecture_energy": 27.664, "architecture_maturity": 13.129, "architecture_confidence": 83.434, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.47, "rotation_up": 49.77, "upward_expansion": 78.5, "deceleration": 52.83, "rotation_down": 19.71, "downward_expansion": 2.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.865999, 24.806181, 24.532095, 24.34243 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 24.889999, "trend_reference": 24.205667, "distance_from_trend": 0.028272, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.234744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.118462, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.555841, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.06186, "excess_performance": 0.105569, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028272, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011839, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.118462, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036758, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005558, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028761, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.06186, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.940729, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20656, "relative_activity": 1.244577, "balance": 0.940729, "dry_up": 0.894811, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052539, "annualized_volatility": 0.191033, "from_high_reference": -0.161388, "from_low_reference": 0.2445 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.205667, "fair_value_reference": 28.234744, "structural_low": 20.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.053961, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.057608, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.104571, "worst_return": -0.121339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.16317, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.141306, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.136605, "worst_return": -0.226772, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.249127, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.289893, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.117361, "worst_return": -0.36063, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.211394, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.018564, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.187631, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.129022, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114737, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080876, "active": 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.696122, "energy": 28.332591, "activity_lines": [ 24.825333, 24.649273, 24.310619, 24.228258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.639999, "volume": 8688, "typical_volume": 22268.75, "trend": 24.250333, "fair_value": 28.374872, "relative_strength": 2.571831, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.707403, "energy": 32.668965, "activity_lines": [ 24.796666, 24.688545, 24.368809, 24.25172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.0, "volume": 10356, "typical_volume": 18103.2, "trend": 24.233667, "fair_value": 28.314295, "relative_strength": 1.604666, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.369445, "energy": 31.143258, "activity_lines": [ 24.864666, 24.768363, 24.459095, 24.300086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.889999, "volume": 20656, "typical_volume": 16596.8, "trend": 24.205667, "fair_value": 28.234744, "relative_strength": 0.555841, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.880117, "energy": 27.663581, "activity_lines": [ 24.865999, 24.806181, 24.532095, 24.34243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }