{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d971d5ab-2dd2-45da-9e07-a914671ad417", "symbol": "ZFN", "name": "BMO SIA Focused North American Equity Fund ETF Series", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.192, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.524, "architecture_energy": 24.389, "architecture_maturity": 52.794, "architecture_confidence": 71.966, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.09, "rotation_up": 23.4, "upward_expansion": 56.26, "deceleration": 90.78, "rotation_down": 30.83, "downward_expansion": 19.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.363333, 63.951636, 63.200762, 62.452355 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 62.57, "trend_reference": 62.123834, "distance_from_trend": 0.007182, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 56.919722, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.099267, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.177114, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016659, "excess_performance": -0.13708, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007182, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014898, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.099267, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023123, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.131771, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001726, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016659, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.687566, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13500, "relative_activity": 0.708104, "balance": 0.687566, "dry_up": 0.639916, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026555, "annualized_volatility": 0.152626, "from_high_reference": -0.097174, "from_low_reference": 0.100809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.123834, "fair_value_reference": 56.919722, "structural_low": 56.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.003486, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.010028, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.043727, "worst_return": -0.041095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007871, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -6e-05, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.137175, "worst_return": -0.091311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.053768, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012685, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.253508, "worst_return": -0.106779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 64.882667, 63.761636, 62.128619, 62.022026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 64.910004, "volume": 11700, "typical_volume": 18575.0, "trend": 62.535103, "fair_value": 56.397013, "relative_strength": -8.763651, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.497337, "energy": 67.820821, "activity_lines": [ 65.084668, 64.117819, 62.47881, 62.167188 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 64.110001, "volume": 8700, "typical_volume": 18595.0, "trend": 62.396138, "fair_value": 56.532143, "relative_strength": -9.416095, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.119143, "energy": 50.107726, "activity_lines": [ 64.777335, 64.248001, 62.742858, 62.268794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.089996, "volume": 20100, "typical_volume": 18795.0, "trend": 62.233834, "fair_value": 56.663002, "relative_strength": -9.362575, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.435649, "energy": 44.584697, "activity_lines": [ 64.484, 64.334182, 62.996238, 62.378075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 63.049999, "volume": 6500, "typical_volume": 18710.0, "trend": 62.234834, "fair_value": 56.793444, "relative_strength": -10.094163, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.169092, "energy": 27.939633, "activity_lines": [ 63.950666, 64.191454, 63.129667, 62.430731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.57, "volume": 13500, "typical_volume": 19065.0, "trend": 62.123834, "fair_value": 56.919722, "relative_strength": -13.177114, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.52441, "energy": 24.388867, "activity_lines": [ 63.363333, 63.951636, 63.200762, 62.452355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }