{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d97421ce-9927-4e58-879f-73614949ab03", "symbol": "FLXT", "name": "Franklin FTSE Taiwan UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.596, "architecture_energy": 27.441, "architecture_maturity": 73.291, "architecture_confidence": 90.661, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.58, "rotation_up": 26.19, "upward_expansion": 59.88, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 31.34, "downward_expansion": 21.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.707334, 59.047455, 57.760571, 54.514419 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 59.060001, "trend_reference": 50.108833, "distance_from_trend": 0.178635, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.208814, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.83366, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 18.25292, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.482616, "excess_performance": 0.311724, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.178635, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.191729, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.83366, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049839, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.182529, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156265, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.482616, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.687351, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57984, "relative_activity": 1.807121, "balance": 0.687351, "dry_up": 1.849265, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067337, "annualized_volatility": 0.323845, "from_high_reference": -0.076755, "from_low_reference": 0.935442 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.108833, "fair_value_reference": 32.208814, "structural_low": 39.34, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.032847, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.013799, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.240117, "worst_return": 0.000935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.140666, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.102601, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.552953, "worst_return": -0.050091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.163075, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.187312, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.648512, "worst_return": -0.054539, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030182, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.135333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.264346, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042804, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.104832, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01881, 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"trend": 47.319833, "fair_value": 31.285929, "relative_strength": 30.038382, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.480207, "energy": 66.646563, "activity_lines": [ 62.157333, 60.758727, 56.063738, 52.245516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 56.18, "volume": 45277, "typical_volume": 26577.85, "trend": 48.0275, "fair_value": 31.510994, "relative_strength": 18.8814, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.887126, "energy": 57.976997, "activity_lines": [ 60.265333, 60.204909, 56.495809, 52.81714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.84, "volume": 46920, "typical_volume": 26853.35, "trend": 48.783333, "fair_value": 31.741442, "relative_strength": 21.671792, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.430014, "energy": 45.544176, "activity_lines": [ 59.158667, 59.927454, 57.024928, 53.450204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.630001, "volume": 87164, "typical_volume": 29580.15, "trend": 49.411333, "fair_value": 31.963109, "relative_strength": 15.484877, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.49947, "energy": 25.860091, "activity_lines": [ 57.700667, 59.169091, 57.263333, 53.891925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.060001, "volume": 57984, "typical_volume": 32086.4, "trend": 50.108833, "fair_value": 32.208814, "relative_strength": 18.25292, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.59572, "energy": 27.441387, "activity_lines": [ 57.707334, 59.047455, 57.760571, 54.514419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }