{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d978e5a1-c87e-4b1a-a6df-c52baaee11f3", "symbol": "HOVR", "name": "New Horizon Aircraft Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.904, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.795, "architecture_energy": 19.53, "architecture_maturity": 6.581, "architecture_confidence": 72.342, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.19, "rotation_up": 19.49, "upward_expansion": 15.24, "deceleration": 59.71, "rotation_down": 51.63, "downward_expansion": 42.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.811333, 1.854727, 2.03781, 2.013333 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.01, "trend_reference": 1.9955, "distance_from_trend": 0.007266, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.440431, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.395415, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.074321, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.086486, "excess_performance": -0.100967, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007266, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03029, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.395415, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.353195, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120743, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207968, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086486, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.485223, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8781039, "relative_activity": 0.964358, "balance": 0.485223, "dry_up": 0.828435, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.255618, "annualized_volatility": 0.957329, "from_high_reference": -0.519139, "from_low_reference": 0.732759 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.9955, "fair_value_reference": 1.440431, "structural_low": 1.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.14017, "energy": 18.637732, "activity_lines": [ 1.928, 2.15, 2.135381, 2.072925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.57, "volume": 7876720, "typical_volume": 8380072.2, "trend": 1.9955, "fair_value": 1.431357, "relative_strength": -28.861293, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.887127, "energy": 28.676963, "activity_lines": [ 1.783333, 2.018273, 2.090167, 2.045215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.78, "volume": 9024633, "typical_volume": 8632183.7, "trend": 2.002833, "fair_value": 1.433998, "relative_strength": -17.894671, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.455806, "energy": 28.38665, "activity_lines": [ 1.75, 1.939636, 2.066714, 2.031312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.72, "volume": 4491152, "typical_volume": 8770968.7, "trend": 2.005833, "fair_value": 1.436149, "relative_strength": -21.069503, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.920643, "energy": 31.606896, "activity_lines": [ 1.726, 1.857909, 2.038214, 2.013065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.01, "volume": 8781039, "typical_volume": 9105580.7, "trend": 1.9955, "fair_value": 1.440431, "relative_strength": -12.074321, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.794612, "energy": 19.529608, "activity_lines": [ 1.811333, 1.854727, 2.03781, 2.013333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }