{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d97b70be-c985-46cf-a706-7bfa094887e5", "symbol": "WHLRD", "name": "Wheeler Real Estate Investment Trust, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.521, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.453, "architecture_energy": 23.595, "architecture_maturity": 27.074, "architecture_confidence": 75.973, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.69, "rotation_up": 18.25, "upward_expansion": 5.82, "deceleration": 47.2, "rotation_down": 48.1, "downward_expansion": 69.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.714, 36.999091, 37.010627, 37.124395 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 36.98, "trend_reference": 37.44134, "distance_from_trend": -0.012322, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.983307, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.370477, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.761853, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.067339, "excess_performance": -0.254793, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012322, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 9e-06, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.370477, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050349, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127619, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060253, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.067339, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.091609, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1480, "relative_activity": 0.62578, "balance": 1.091609, "dry_up": 0.940466, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052502, "annualized_volatility": 0.244869, "from_high_reference": -0.119524, "from_low_reference": 0.085731 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.44134, "fair_value_reference": 26.983307, "structural_low": 34.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.017793, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.031093, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.165833, "worst_return": -0.106505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.027422, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.123441, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.0025, "worst_return": -0.092466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.094592, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.085454, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.134167, "worst_return": -0.20411, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.128072, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.313672, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.014798, "worst_return": -0.270941, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.180952, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038684, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.284358, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061658, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114684, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055864, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02849, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014489, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.059706, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.170895, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.008533, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032258, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.101695, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045677, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.5, "volume": 87640, "typical_volume": 28023.4, "trend": 12.31462, "fair_value": 14.655935, "relative_strength": -19.705766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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14.599204, "relative_strength": -14.32885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.170906, "energy": 14.327985, "activity_lines": [ 11.919333, 11.850545, 12.068789, 12.169615 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 10.25, "volume": 354150, "typical_volume": 59439.15, "trend": 12.212637, "fair_value": 14.567153, "relative_strength": -29.163502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.287862, "energy": 36.38467, "activity_lines": [ 11.411333, 11.558909, 11.88056, 12.038327 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 10.31, "volume": 109803, "typical_volume": 64488.0, "trend": 12.15097, "fair_value": 14.537088, "relative_strength": -25.731349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.879416, "energy": 39.316042, "activity_lines": [ 11.021333, 11.31, 11.70876, 11.915576 ] }, { "date": 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"relative_strength": -8.83975, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.750911, "energy": 2.580828, "activity_lines": [ 37.269333, 37.247647, 37.056108, 37.300591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 38.31, "volume": 1235, "typical_volume": 5281.65, "trend": 37.594007, "fair_value": 26.346512, "relative_strength": -10.94441, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.111908, "energy": 12.076179, "activity_lines": [ 37.678, 37.49528, 37.158202, 37.348526 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.75, "volume": 883, "typical_volume": 5080.05, "trend": 37.586673, "fair_value": 26.511576, "relative_strength": -8.243586, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.492899, "energy": 14.091766, "activity_lines": [ 37.802, 37.588185, 37.21263, 37.35859 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.0, "volume": 6361, "typical_volume": 3827.8, "trend": 37.55334, "fair_value": 26.667281, "relative_strength": -10.816183, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.030755, "energy": 18.676134, "activity_lines": [ 37.282, 37.320182, 37.107486, 37.256224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.0, "volume": 173, "typical_volume": 2554.65, "trend": 37.470007, "fair_value": 26.821384, "relative_strength": -11.023776, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.664845, "energy": 21.905363, "activity_lines": [ 36.834667, 37.043273, 37.00977, 37.156008 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.98, "volume": 1480, "typical_volume": 2365.05, "trend": 37.44134, "fair_value": 26.983307, "relative_strength": -12.761853, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.453363, "energy": 23.595148, "activity_lines": [ 36.714, 36.999091, 37.010627, 37.124395 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }