{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d981efd0-2807-4476-9dcf-05d6d3f8377d", "symbol": "VIS2", "name": "Leverage Shares 2x Visa ETP Securities A", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 82.109, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.435, "architecture_energy": 86.33, "architecture_maturity": 20.35, "architecture_confidence": 72.421, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.37, "rotation_up": 81.8, "upward_expansion": 98.5, "deceleration": 39.28, "rotation_down": 10.34, "downward_expansion": 20.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.6, 77.913636, 73.405952, 70.685484 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 82.5, "trend_reference": 68.5, "distance_from_trend": 0.20438, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 70.195665, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.175286, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.149603, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.166078, "excess_performance": 0.114842, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.20438, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015333, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.175286, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.228167, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031496, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.251507, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.166078, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.330793, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44, "relative_activity": 0.189614, "balance": 0.330793, "dry_up": 0.31351, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058974, "annualized_volatility": 0.437665, "from_high_reference": -0.051724, "from_low_reference": 0.460177 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.5, "fair_value_reference": 70.195665, "structural_low": 56.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.013507, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.012905, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.201016, "worst_return": -0.127471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.031595, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.011197, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.234489, "worst_return": -0.163265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.054825, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.092865, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.256231, "worst_return": -0.242347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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62.459091, 64.55, 67.515734 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "close": 64.5, "volume": 71, "typical_volume": 148.15, "trend": 70.697961, "fair_value": 68.10121, "relative_strength": -22.001139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.736815, "energy": 24.952692, "activity_lines": [ 65.0, 62.881818, 64.207143, 67.077156 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 68.25, "volume": 58, "typical_volume": 151.05, "trend": 70.322961, "fair_value": 68.22871, "relative_strength": -16.292642, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.053542, "energy": 20.306235, "activity_lines": [ 66.416667, 64.009091, 64.297619, 66.919223 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 69.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 150.0, "trend": 69.883333, "fair_value": 68.380922, "relative_strength": -16.80532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"relative_strength": -17.623017, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.357418, "energy": 12.090565, "activity_lines": [ 67.1, 66.754545, 64.958333, 66.324731 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 67.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 238.8, "trend": 68.725, "fair_value": 68.919159, "relative_strength": -15.213654, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.3821, "energy": 11.213419, "activity_lines": [ 66.9, 66.972727, 65.166667, 66.201075 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 71.5, "volume": 122, "typical_volume": 243.7, "trend": 68.591667, "fair_value": 69.059383, "relative_strength": -10.072181, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 12.96384, "energy": 13.391651, "activity_lines": [ 68.283333, 67.881818, 65.811905, 66.380108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 81.0, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 243.15, "trend": 68.816667, "fair_value": 69.262268, "relative_strength": 0.908541, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 59.871457, "energy": 63.898855, "activity_lines": [ 72.666667, 70.390909, 67.358333, 67.180645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 74.75, "volume": 45, "typical_volume": 244.4, "trend": 68.625, "fair_value": 69.4023, "relative_strength": -4.663359, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.94377, "energy": 62.37942, "activity_lines": [ 74.166667, 71.390909, 68.234524, 67.563441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 80.0, "volume": 149, "typical_volume": 250.85, "trend": 68.608333, "fair_value": 69.590729, "relative_strength": 1.553003, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.577818, "energy": 74.269661, "activity_lines": [ 76.8, 73.268182, 69.575, 68.297312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 78.25, "volume": 38, "typical_volume": 239.95, "trend": 68.416667, "fair_value": 69.779864, "relative_strength": -1.286935, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.892639, "energy": 80.964311, "activity_lines": [ 77.933333, 74.545455, 70.680952, 68.919355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 81.75, "volume": 60, "typical_volume": 241.0, "trend": 68.458333, "fair_value": 69.991018, "relative_strength": 2.252232, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.209383, "energy": 85.058024, "activity_lines": [ 79.483333, 76.277273, 72.055952, 69.77957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 82.5, "volume": 44, "typical_volume": 232.05, "trend": 68.5, "fair_value": 70.195665, "relative_strength": 3.149603, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.4346, "energy": 86.329688, "activity_lines": [ 80.6, 77.913636, 73.405952, 70.685484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }