{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9826975-9748-417e-b7e0-8bf0d91e1826", "symbol": "603809", "name": "Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.827, "architecture_energy": 49.041, "architecture_maturity": 79.707, "architecture_confidence": 89.618, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.58, "rotation_up": 22.56, "upward_expansion": 7.11, "deceleration": 59.13, "rotation_down": 52.8, "downward_expansion": 78.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.079333, 9.182909, 9.72235, 10.193683 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.38, "trend_reference": 11.039964, "distance_from_trend": -0.15036, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.553463, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.018157, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.087735, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.268331, "excess_performance": -0.225127, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15036, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098727, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.018157, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.271285, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.240877, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003603, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.268331, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.284503, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58275913, "relative_activity": 1.078586, "balance": 0.284503, "dry_up": 1.09366, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091088, "annualized_volatility": 0.426335, "from_high_reference": -0.48234, "from_low_reference": 0.127404 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.039964, "fair_value_reference": 9.553463, "structural_low": 8.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.053658, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.029633, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.236291, "worst_return": -0.185957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.085558, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.057427, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.437634, "worst_return": -0.213712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.055132, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.120254, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.236423, "worst_return": -0.134215, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-17", "close": 8.61, "volume": 53754809, "typical_volume": 54922626.1, "trend": 11.501964, "fair_value": 9.48317, "relative_strength": -29.677802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.124869, "energy": 77.740695, "activity_lines": [ 9.067333, 9.513616, 10.075334, 10.635805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.36, "volume": 51399641, "typical_volume": 53445523.05, "trend": 11.355297, "fair_value": 9.501035, "relative_strength": -31.671088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.4921, "energy": 66.757968, "activity_lines": [ 8.79, 9.228685, 9.875054, 10.433098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.47, "volume": 72931113, "typical_volume": 53972196.9, "trend": 11.205631, "fair_value": 9.526977, "relative_strength": -22.070458, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.215163, "energy": 55.404457, "activity_lines": [ 8.977333, 9.199278, 9.797678, 10.311466 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.38, "volume": 58275913, "typical_volume": 54029903.8, "trend": 11.039964, "fair_value": 9.553463, "relative_strength": -24.087735, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.826595, "energy": 49.04051, "activity_lines": [ 9.079333, 9.182909, 9.72235, 10.193683 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }