{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9830ac8-2c5c-4084-bf88-265f5aa458b3", "symbol": "BLND", "name": "Blend Labs Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.85, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.781, "architecture_energy": 10.843, "architecture_maturity": 23.813, "architecture_confidence": 55.558, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.55, "rotation_up": 26.24, "upward_expansion": 23.06, "deceleration": 31.79, "rotation_down": 30.7, "downward_expansion": 52.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.710667, 1.720545, 1.670143, 1.670387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.63, "trend_reference": 1.762667, "distance_from_trend": -0.075265, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.791731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.416133, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -41.06616, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.180905, "excess_performance": -0.306529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075265, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203854, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.416133, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080861, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.410662, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.166382, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.180905, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.888642, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15036673, "relative_activity": 0.939451, "balance": 1.888642, "dry_up": 0.704029, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159226, "annualized_volatility": 0.760677, "from_high_reference": -0.636971, "from_low_reference": 0.387234 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.762667, "fair_value_reference": 2.791731, "structural_low": 1.175, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.059748, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.003714, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.888889, "worst_return": -0.341844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.125, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.079367, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.056911, "worst_return": -0.493316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.214799, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.08058, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.792793, "worst_return": -0.210526, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037433, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.41791, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12037, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068452, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.180645, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": 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"fair_value": 2.785513, "relative_strength": -35.091082, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.914969, "energy": 11.150605, "activity_lines": [ 1.759333, 1.719636, 1.651143, 1.701484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.69, "volume": 11743276, "typical_volume": 18017231.65, "trend": 1.859333, "fair_value": 2.787949, "relative_strength": -37.93681, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.820939, "energy": 10.624829, "activity_lines": [ 1.742667, 1.722909, 1.657, 1.687634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.78, "volume": 7827987, "typical_volume": 16691482.7, "trend": 1.818, "fair_value": 2.790897, "relative_strength": -34.17018, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.020783, "energy": 7.610427, "activity_lines": [ 1.753333, 1.738182, 1.671238, 1.682516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.63, "volume": 15036673, "typical_volume": 16005800.6, "trend": 1.762667, "fair_value": 2.791731, "relative_strength": -41.06616, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.781428, "energy": 10.843269, "activity_lines": [ 1.710667, 1.720545, 1.670143, 1.670387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }