{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9884fd7-3151-4020-aac6-5da41741c603", "symbol": "BHC", "name": "Bausch Health Companies Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 28.281, "architecture_energy": 31.447, "architecture_maturity": 25.14, "architecture_confidence": 64.388, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.92, "rotation_up": 59.84, "upward_expansion": 38.48, "deceleration": 43.25, "rotation_down": 22.45, "downward_expansion": 22.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.078667, 7.548909, 7.450238, 7.468796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.7, "trend_reference": 7.611667, "distance_from_trend": 0.142982, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.501026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.084309, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.072796, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.083437, "excess_performance": -0.036984, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.142982, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0851, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.084309, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11245, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090728, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095944, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083437, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.983972, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3645400, "relative_activity": 1.902709, "balance": 0.983972, "dry_up": 1.955126, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103448, "annualized_volatility": 0.705316, "from_high_reference": -0.273183, "from_low_reference": 0.42623 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.611667, "fair_value_reference": 9.501026, "structural_low": 6.1, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04936, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.032662, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.283733, "worst_return": -0.124542, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.00354, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.04123, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.091408, "worst_return": -0.030752, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.043876, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.129203, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.176538, "worst_return": -0.329204, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11299, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.167719, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.174112, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010764, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.159453, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", 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1615035.0, "trend": 7.794667, "fair_value": 9.574872, "relative_strength": -28.079788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.483618, "energy": 42.176567, "activity_lines": [ 6.798, 6.935091, 7.188857, 7.374323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.25, "volume": 2429600, "typical_volume": 1601025.0, "trend": 7.675, "fair_value": 9.533782, "relative_strength": -33.125433, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.430235, "energy": 50.686107, "activity_lines": [ 6.624667, 6.783091, 7.091333, 7.274667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.65, "volume": 6892600, "typical_volume": 1844270.0, "trend": 7.666, "fair_value": 9.517821, "relative_strength": 3.809914, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.408549, "energy": 12.317158, "activity_lines": [ 7.606, 7.271455, 7.322762, 7.402086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.7, "volume": 3645400, "typical_volume": 1915900.0, "trend": 7.611667, "fair_value": 9.501026, "relative_strength": -9.072796, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.280796, "energy": 31.447439, "activity_lines": [ 8.078667, 7.548909, 7.450238, 7.468796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }