{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d989b188-be45-4970-a062-acd2a1912ab3", "symbol": "3067", "name": "iShares Hang Seng TECH ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.65, "architecture_energy": 15.719, "architecture_maturity": 98.362, "architecture_confidence": 60.158, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.0, "rotation_up": 36.14, "upward_expansion": 22.06, "deceleration": 41.04, "rotation_down": 20.46, "downward_expansion": 53.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.044667, 9.863273, 9.964619, 10.100301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.24, "trend_reference": 10.418667, "distance_from_trend": -0.017149, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.627586, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.06361, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.084292, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.085714, "excess_performance": -0.052133, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017149, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059997, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.06361, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065981, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080843, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014426, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.085714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.243935, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89935019, "relative_activity": 0.669851, "balance": 1.243935, "dry_up": 1.330596, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052772, "annualized_volatility": 0.225832, "from_high_reference": -0.272661, "from_low_reference": 0.148626 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.418667, "fair_value_reference": 9.627586, "structural_low": 8.915, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.006064, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 0.002134, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.190058, "worst_return": -0.133255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.042553, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.043485, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.170915, "worst_return": -0.162586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.004142, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.02544, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.175384, "worst_return": -0.176149, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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252029550, "typical_volume": 142197932.4, "trend": 10.5945, "fair_value": 9.609565, "relative_strength": -9.424284, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.209913, "energy": 45.642107, "activity_lines": [ 9.640667, 9.743182, 9.966929, 10.191903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.755, "volume": 188667768, "typical_volume": 136930260.75, "trend": 10.535667, "fair_value": 9.6131, "relative_strength": -10.483024, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.760514, "energy": 32.944318, "activity_lines": [ 9.703667, 9.719818, 9.934619, 10.137742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.19, "volume": 183957403, "typical_volume": 138297766.05, "trend": 10.474667, "fair_value": 9.618665, "relative_strength": -9.546839, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.875629, "energy": 17.728455, "activity_lines": [ 9.906333, 9.786727, 9.946667, 10.115441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.24, "volume": 89935019, "typical_volume": 134261221.15, "trend": 10.418667, "fair_value": 9.627586, "relative_strength": -8.084292, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.649965, "energy": 15.718863, "activity_lines": [ 10.044667, 9.863273, 9.964619, 10.100301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }