{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d98d43c5-d508-40e7-a402-d3ce86be8284", "symbol": "002165", "name": "Hongbaoli Group Corporation, Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.506, "architecture_energy": 46.565, "architecture_maturity": 77.535, "architecture_confidence": 80.509, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.23, "rotation_up": 28.04, "upward_expansion": 12.5, "deceleration": 60.75, "rotation_down": 44.2, "downward_expansion": 74.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.321333, 6.332994, 6.986945, 7.84847 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.62, "trend_reference": 8.828633, "distance_from_trend": -0.250167, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.228706, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.062821, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.010771, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.481597, "excess_performance": -0.488997, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.250167, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054698, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.062821, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.436161, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.270108, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03091, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.481597, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.640145, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 224822825, "relative_activity": 0.841116, "balance": 0.640145, "dry_up": 1.169571, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157229, "annualized_volatility": 0.702307, "from_high_reference": -0.558372, "from_low_reference": 0.225926 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.828633, "fair_value_reference": 6.228706, "structural_low": 5.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.038697, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": 0.033593, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.455243, "worst_return": -0.238683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.163146, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.076573, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.436063, "worst_return": -0.078891, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.146946, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.104998, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.32277, "worst_return": 0.003154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.171285, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.12035, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.085184, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041379, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.08216, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.899909, "energy": 65.116713, "activity_lines": [ 6.064, 6.360909, 7.282698, 8.15782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.35, "volume": 395287508, "typical_volume": 306223337.05, "trend": 8.859967, "fair_value": 6.212102, "relative_strength": -26.998209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.010323, "energy": 56.045783, "activity_lines": [ 6.142667, 6.307325, 7.106702, 7.992984 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.62, "volume": 224822825, "typical_volume": 267291108.4, "trend": 8.828633, "fair_value": 6.228706, "relative_strength": -27.010771, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.505761, "energy": 46.565104, "activity_lines": [ 6.321333, 6.332994, 6.986945, 7.84847 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }