{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9a7a25b-53f9-47b7-bacb-d60c35420292", "symbol": "ASHI", "name": "Ashington Innovation PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.704, "architecture_energy": 26.031, "architecture_maturity": 33.39, "architecture_confidence": 57.278, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.67, "rotation_up": 29.45, "upward_expansion": 57.78, "deceleration": 67.05, "rotation_down": 24.12, "downward_expansion": 14.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0075, 0.007555, 0.006936, 0.006404 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0075, "trend_reference": 0.006283, "distance_from_trend": 0.193634, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.011683, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.358025, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.195332, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.142857, "excess_performance": -0.194092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.193634, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052764, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.358025, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.375146, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101953, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.443677, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.723977, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 2.723977, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.195487, "annualized_volatility": 1.790437, "from_high_reference": -0.529781, "from_low_reference": 1.941176 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.006283, "fair_value_reference": 0.011683, "structural_low": 0.00255, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.029458, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.730769, "worst_return": -0.571429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.063103, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.730769, "worst_return": -0.571429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.101648, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014138, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.346154, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.153846, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.027197, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.153846, "worst_return": 0.153846, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.730769, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false 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"activity_lines": [ 0.0075, 0.007605, 0.006414, 0.006184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0075, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 199637.6, "trend": 0.006367, "fair_value": 0.012144, "relative_strength": -11.264594, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.855847, "energy": 19.672149, "activity_lines": [ 0.0075, 0.007655, 0.006606, 0.006255 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0075, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 199637.6, "trend": 0.006325, "fair_value": 0.011913, "relative_strength": -11.146777, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.161769, "energy": 28.384237, "activity_lines": [ 0.0075, 0.007636, 0.00678, 0.006328 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0075, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 199496.2, "trend": 0.006283, "fair_value": 0.011683, "relative_strength": -10.195332, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.704143, "energy": 26.030773, "activity_lines": [ 0.0075, 0.007555, 0.006936, 0.006404 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }