{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9b0bc43-4d1a-4aef-b570-dac5e884afdf", "symbol": "PKOH", "name": "Park Ohio Holdings Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 94.954, "architecture_energy": 91.367, "architecture_maturity": 52.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.073, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.67, "rotation_up": 81.75, "upward_expansion": 92.92, "deceleration": 46.4, "rotation_down": 10.08, "downward_expansion": 19.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.248738, 40.321494, 36.569332, 33.766223 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 52.51, "trend_reference": 30.378616, "distance_from_trend": 0.728519, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.276805, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.16297, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 77.796104, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.114675, "excess_performance": 0.927221, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.728519, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.233209, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.16297, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.800009, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.777961, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.573896, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.114675, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.502798, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 657706, "relative_activity": 1.874588, "balance": 2.502798, "dry_up": 1.186048, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073991, "annualized_volatility": 0.485275, "from_high_reference": -0.002848, "from_low_reference": 1.981805 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.378616, "fair_value_reference": 24.276805, "structural_low": 21.236986, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.01148, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.00925, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.255572, "worst_return": -0.244136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.166192, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.101809, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.352455, "worst_return": -0.209213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.179554, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.004836, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.500581, "worst_return": -0.219236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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32.237988, 30.245788 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.642162, "volume": 319046, "typical_volume": 314277.35, "trend": 28.1418, "fair_value": 23.777069, "relative_strength": 38.948589, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.13445, "energy": 61.425081, "activity_lines": [ 37.01032, 35.852986, 32.98765, 30.891623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.349946, "volume": 292781, "typical_volume": 318435.75, "trend": 28.723688, "fair_value": 23.906903, "relative_strength": 42.050643, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.799878, "energy": 58.823227, "activity_lines": [ 37.467376, 36.535451, 33.747508, 31.550213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.93, "volume": 394984, "typical_volume": 327097.8, "trend": 29.368151, "fair_value": 24.050777, "relative_strength": 44.95596, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.822798, "energy": 62.670661, "activity_lines": [ 38.294453, 37.364654, 34.596554, 32.273201 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.51, "volume": 657706, "typical_volume": 350853.6, "trend": 30.378616, "fair_value": 24.276805, "relative_strength": 77.796104, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 94.954243, "energy": 91.366888, "activity_lines": [ 43.248738, 40.321494, 36.569332, 33.766223 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }