{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9b2ebec-b8c0-4508-a2cf-37d5c5cf8113", "symbol": "NCLH", "name": "Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 52.549, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.554, "architecture_energy": 16.861, "architecture_maturity": 29.875, "architecture_confidence": 61.972, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.02, "rotation_up": 14.09, "upward_expansion": 19.03, "deceleration": 62.39, "rotation_down": 41.41, "downward_expansion": 53.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.707467, 17.0108, 16.609733, 16.726594 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 16.612, "trend_reference": 17.122567, "distance_from_trend": -0.029818, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.06666, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.080516, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.173655, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.145737, "excess_performance": -0.319984, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029818, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014112, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.080516, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111761, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.261737, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073583, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145737, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.630556, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1027, "relative_activity": 1.341957, "balance": 4.630556, "dry_up": 0.668692, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077784, "annualized_volatility": 0.535864, "from_high_reference": -0.279149, "from_low_reference": 0.300658 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.122567, "fair_value_reference": 18.06666, "structural_low": 12.772, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.083357, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.055944, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.307361, "worst_return": -0.349547, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.012628, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.060925, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.470688, "worst_return": -0.429958, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.139386, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.282333, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.537378, "worst_return": -0.323694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.049697, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.03307, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.149136, "worst_return": -0.494622, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114869, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119776, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.171258, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.240976, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.438923, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095405, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146047, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000722, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.211031, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062656, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.102928, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090542, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.136286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036315, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.44, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 852.05, "trend": 15.017133, "fair_value": 17.750891, "relative_strength": 5.678614, "stage": 1, "regime": 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"activity_lines": [ 15.930933, 15.626, 16.212552, 16.853983 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 17.562, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1414.7, "trend": 17.4702, "fair_value": 18.127487, "relative_strength": -25.497131, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.628108, "energy": 23.843734, "activity_lines": [ 16.671867, 15.9444, 16.270919, 16.864077 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 18.576, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1364.6, "trend": 17.5548, "fair_value": 18.119737, "relative_strength": -19.283695, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 13.35941, "energy": 29.797997, "activity_lines": [ 17.477867, 16.436364, 16.429533, 16.935419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 17.238001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1326.1, "trend": 17.581333, "fair_value": 18.100558, "relative_strength": -26.304178, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.898993, "energy": 24.528614, "activity_lines": [ 17.538134, 16.680073, 16.464862, 16.914981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.304001, "volume": 1507, "typical_volume": 1258.75, "trend": 17.568, "fair_value": 18.092026, "relative_strength": -24.41182, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.194175, "energy": 23.057414, "activity_lines": [ 17.531067, 16.909419, 16.511448, 16.897088 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.098, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1208.75, "trend": 17.480667, "fair_value": 18.080827, "relative_strength": -23.128363, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.499839, "energy": 19.517412, "activity_lines": [ 17.408934, 17.072509, 16.552276, 16.866766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.42, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 858.0, "trend": 17.393667, "fair_value": 18.067462, "relative_strength": -22.064941, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.28254, "energy": 11.967065, "activity_lines": [ 17.363734, 17.249346, 16.643353, 16.862852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.948, "volume": 720, "typical_volume": 723.0, "trend": 17.278333, "fair_value": 18.063442, "relative_strength": -27.77267, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.482872, "energy": 17.467635, "activity_lines": [ 16.837334, 17.086691, 16.592686, 16.769583 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.612, "volume": 1027, "typical_volume": 765.3, "trend": 17.122567, "fair_value": 18.06666, "relative_strength": -26.173655, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.553959, "energy": 16.860534, "activity_lines": [ 16.707467, 17.0108, 16.609733, 16.726594 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }