{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9b4c13c-3a29-4e1b-944f-ca3db2cd7ca3", "symbol": "AIOS", "name": "AIOS Tech Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.951, "architecture_energy": 41.331, "architecture_maturity": 36.439, "architecture_confidence": 89.995, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.9, "rotation_up": 14.6, "upward_expansion": 7.78, "deceleration": 41.05, "rotation_down": 52.62, "downward_expansion": 78.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.992, 12.545818, 13.42611, 13.649723 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.05, "trend_reference": 14.703833, "distance_from_trend": -0.180486, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 92.256609, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.869386, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -71.981132, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.42619, "excess_performance": -0.613644, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.180486, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.47969, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.869386, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064581, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.719811, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008921, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.42619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.82644, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 149695, "relative_activity": 0.179034, "balance": 1.82644, "dry_up": 0.139302, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.330863, "annualized_volatility": 1.832313, "from_high_reference": -0.868162, "from_low_reference": 0.842508 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.703833, "fair_value_reference": 92.256609, "structural_low": 6.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.122561, "positive_rate": 0.083333, "directional_follow_through": 0.083333, "median_excess_return": -0.096771, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.044593, "worst_return": -0.525606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.364162, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.41039, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.159937, "worst_return": -0.713565, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.441069, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.677343, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.287852, "worst_return": -0.893924, "sufficient": false }, { 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.102732, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.241409, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018757, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078818, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.235398, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.351351, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144363, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.54375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.240227, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 60.6, "volume": 41731, "typical_volume": 373288.3, "trend": 90.451727, "fair_value": 1283.410588, "relative_strength": -50.07815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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93.673532, "relative_strength": -71.667614, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.515549, "energy": 20.640069, "activity_lines": [ 13.684667, 14.030182, 14.088881, 14.645254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.02, "volume": 66539, "typical_volume": 921685.15, "trend": 15.9051, "fair_value": 93.283917, "relative_strength": -72.027949, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.222336, "energy": 20.311358, "activity_lines": [ 13.568667, 13.728364, 14.022114, 14.411419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.64, "volume": 138365, "typical_volume": 873395.8, "trend": 15.359767, "fair_value": 92.890583, "relative_strength": -75.801689, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.858746, "energy": 24.601552, "activity_lines": [ 12.591333, 13.102727, 13.723633, 14.071735 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.85, "volume": 111295, "typical_volume": 862222.65, "trend": 15.081433, "fair_value": 92.583212, "relative_strength": -72.163143, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.226106, "energy": 30.819739, "activity_lines": [ 12.204667, 12.767818, 13.559248, 13.845299 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.05, "volume": 149695, "typical_volume": 836124.7, "trend": 14.703833, "fair_value": 92.256609, "relative_strength": -71.981132, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.95082, "energy": 41.331436, "activity_lines": [ 11.992, 12.545818, 13.42611, 13.649723 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }