{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9baa04c-8043-4811-8aea-becb6b20ec6c", "symbol": "ARA", "name": "Aura Renewable Acquisitions plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.031, "architecture_energy": 12.995, "architecture_maturity": 23.805, "architecture_confidence": 76.069, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.86, "rotation_up": 23.52, "upward_expansion": 17.2, "deceleration": 39.13, "rotation_down": 25.09, "downward_expansion": 40.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.025, 0.025, 0.024, 0.025215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.025, "trend_reference": 0.028333, "distance_from_trend": -0.117647, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.045506, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.450627, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.043564, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.285714, "excess_performance": -0.33695, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.117647, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212963, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.450627, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13662, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.360436, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.172638, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.285714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120338, "annualized_volatility": 0.846887, "from_high_reference": -0.540779, "from_low_reference": 1.272727 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.028333, "fair_value_reference": 0.045506, "structural_low": 0.011, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.012195, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.05497, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.26087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.042572, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.088105, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.176471, "worst_return": -0.26087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.041667, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.093775, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.058824, "worst_return": -0.26087, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 0, "typical_volume": 23042.7, "trend": 0.03, "fair_value": 0.046019, "relative_strength": -37.221728, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.208692, "energy": 12.541012, "activity_lines": [ 0.025, 0.024909, 0.023857, 0.025806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.025, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 22542.7, "trend": 0.029167, "fair_value": 0.045763, "relative_strength": -36.932976, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.670898, "energy": 13.93996, "activity_lines": [ 0.025, 0.025, 0.023905, 0.025484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.025, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 22512.55, "trend": 0.028333, "fair_value": 0.045506, "relative_strength": -36.043564, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.030922, "energy": 12.994621, "activity_lines": [ 0.025, 0.025, 0.024, 0.025215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }