{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9bf4090-2622-42bd-b356-77d3ca25101b", "symbol": "KOS", "name": "Kosmos Energy Ltd.", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.746, "architecture_energy": 79.578, "architecture_maturity": 55.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.791, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.39, "rotation_up": 27.61, "upward_expansion": 31.16, "deceleration": 43.79, "rotation_down": 49.34, "downward_expansion": 78.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.880667, 1.811545, 56.18469, 89.659 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.825, "trend_reference": 117.1205, "distance_from_trend": -0.984418, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 298.393365, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.993884, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.576518, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.980533, "excess_performance": -1.031769, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984418, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206769, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.993884, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.583255, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.985765, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.340837, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.980533, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.301379, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23334, "relative_activity": 0.375699, "balance": 5.301379, "dry_up": 0.525241, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 12.507404, "annualized_volatility": 6.381514, "from_high_reference": -0.992641, "from_low_reference": 0.294326 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 117.1205, "fair_value_reference": 298.393365, "structural_low": 1.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.031646, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.036361, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 1.058667, "worst_return": -0.377358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.057554, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.100415, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 2.114286, "worst_return": -0.465649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.140097, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.128209, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 2.128743, "worst_return": -0.434667, "sufficient": true 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"close": 1.985, "volume": 48810, "typical_volume": 83152.05, "trend": 121.6, "fair_value": 304.75641, "relative_strength": -98.509766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.645427, "energy": 85.378432, "activity_lines": [ 1.735667, 13.200455, 78.592976, 104.953817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.04, "volume": 19047, "typical_volume": 74032.7, "trend": 119.334667, "fair_value": 301.698974, "relative_strength": -98.448397, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.075833, "energy": 81.961805, "activity_lines": [ 1.858667, 5.453182, 66.968214, 97.240269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.825, "volume": 23334, "typical_volume": 62108.2, "trend": 117.1205, "fair_value": 298.393365, "relative_strength": -98.576518, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.74581, "energy": 79.577871, "activity_lines": [ 1.880667, 1.811545, 56.18469, 89.659 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }