{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9c06136-2662-4789-b934-08879b483478", "symbol": "SKOLON", "name": "Skolon AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.862, "architecture_energy": 10.964, "architecture_maturity": 18.421, "architecture_confidence": 71.489, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.98, "rotation_up": 29.87, "upward_expansion": 31.1, "deceleration": 42.52, "rotation_down": 30.36, "downward_expansion": 46.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.88, 20.78, 20.532857, 20.772473 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.6, "trend_reference": 21.67, "distance_from_trend": -0.049377, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.634162, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.226557, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.978749, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.248175, "excess_performance": -0.30967, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049377, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119344, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.226557, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031166, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.289787, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088045, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.248175, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.451826, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1104, "relative_activity": 0.127807, "balance": 1.451826, "dry_up": 0.192232, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098954, "annualized_volatility": 0.636163, "from_high_reference": -0.411429, "from_low_reference": 0.42069 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.67, "fair_value_reference": 26.634162, "structural_low": 14.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.055794, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.062367, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.316964, "worst_return": -0.109215, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.03319, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.070586, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.844262, "worst_return": -0.259386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.115016, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.166298, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.931331, "worst_return": -0.413897, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.011375, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.117521, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.369099, "worst_return": -0.39185, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.031153, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067797, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095847, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009901, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059561, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029851, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066465, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054054, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.155556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", 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20.568095, 21.816774 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 21.0, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 10522.35, "trend": 23.746667, "fair_value": 26.737997, "relative_strength": -30.323943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.629145, "energy": 21.304171, "activity_lines": [ 21.293334, 20.474546, 20.541905, 21.624516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 19.1, "volume": 26, "typical_volume": 10125.1, "trend": 23.353333, "fair_value": 26.715977, "relative_strength": -37.434236, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.501637, "energy": 20.781785, "activity_lines": [ 20.513334, 20.301818, 20.365238, 21.324731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.0, "volume": 38103, "typical_volume": 11514.4, "trend": 22.88, "fair_value": 26.693472, "relative_strength": -32.054634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.550085, "energy": 22.457001, "activity_lines": [ 20.226667, 20.309091, 20.304762, 21.108387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.6, "volume": 3157, "typical_volume": 10734.5, "trend": 22.55, "fair_value": 26.681225, "relative_strength": -24.93174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.014178, "energy": 15.826962, "activity_lines": [ 20.566667, 20.596364, 20.418095, 21.025806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.799999, "volume": 1368, "typical_volume": 10170.4, "trend": 22.236667, "fair_value": 26.669634, "relative_strength": -24.537603, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.828729, "energy": 6.719474, "activity_lines": [ 20.973333, 20.890909, 20.544762, 20.977419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.4, "volume": 1013, "typical_volume": 9406.4, "trend": 21.94, "fair_value": 26.649693, "relative_strength": -29.284055, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.237346, "energy": 10.154601, "activity_lines": [ 20.873333, 20.854545, 20.526667, 20.858925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.6, "volume": 1104, "typical_volume": 8638.0, "trend": 21.67, "fair_value": 26.634162, "relative_strength": -28.978749, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.861834, "energy": 10.964057, "activity_lines": [ 20.88, 20.78, 20.532857, 20.772473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }