{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9c17262-9ff6-4fa9-9d23-ace919b65867", "symbol": "FCG", "name": "First Trust Natural Gas ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.78, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.364, "architecture_energy": 16.471, "architecture_maturity": 32.041, "architecture_confidence": 62.974, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.92, "rotation_up": 50.21, "upward_expansion": 32.94, "deceleration": 47.07, "rotation_down": 19.88, "downward_expansion": 23.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 496.089329, 487.837145, 494.843191, 499.040375 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 489.899994, "trend_reference": 492.804111, "distance_from_trend": -0.005893, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 463.005505, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058087, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.032387, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.089313, "excess_performance": 0.14398, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005893, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040695, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.058087, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033163, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.030324, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04269, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.089313, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.377702, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 970, "relative_activity": 0.374488, "balance": 1.377702, "dry_up": 0.665586, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04498, "annualized_volatility": 0.365551, "from_high_reference": -0.172466, "from_low_reference": 0.223504 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 492.804111, "fair_value_reference": 463.005505, "structural_low": 445.15387, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.00494, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003977, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.110004, "worst_return": -0.085026, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.073218, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.009643, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.425164, "worst_return": -0.068382, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.117939, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.045663, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.327709, "worst_return": -0.091832, "sufficient": false }, { 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"fair_value": 461.475881, "relative_strength": 3.249243, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.121852, "energy": 46.209258, "activity_lines": [ 473.188121, 480.583048, 497.193002, 496.139303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 515.0, "volume": 2677, "typical_volume": 2440.6, "trend": 487.201012, "fair_value": 462.297919, "relative_strength": 9.095804, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.740256, "energy": 9.962737, "activity_lines": [ 487.8, 485.121027, 497.654208, 498.147 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 501.209991, "volume": 2630, "typical_volume": 2544.1, "trend": 490.061657, "fair_value": 462.700994, "relative_strength": 5.405674, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.546926, "energy": 10.654759, "activity_lines": [ 494.769997, 487.136566, 496.726867, 499.050805 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 489.899994, "volume": 970, "typical_volume": 2590.2, "trend": 492.804111, "fair_value": 463.005505, "relative_strength": 3.032387, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.363982, "energy": 16.470742, "activity_lines": [ 496.089329, 487.837145, 494.843191, 499.040375 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }