{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9c4990c-9fc0-4b6d-9f32-51c42d3eaa43", "symbol": "WIL", "name": "Wilmington plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 30.27, "architecture_energy": 32.541, "architecture_maturity": 20.451, "architecture_confidence": 44.458, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.39, "rotation_up": 49.74, "upward_expansion": 48.84, "deceleration": 40.87, "rotation_down": 25.3, "downward_expansion": 11.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 280.466667, 277.272727, 267.185714, 263.623155 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 278.0, "trend_reference": 264.757413, "distance_from_trend": 0.050018, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 335.621767, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.171687, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.933403, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.024443, "excess_performance": -0.075678, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050018, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035943, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.171687, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080779, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119334, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116203, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024443, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.264441, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 177423, "relative_activity": 0.170478, "balance": 2.264441, "dry_up": 0.330412, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056595, "annualized_volatility": 0.285518, "from_high_reference": -0.246324, "from_low_reference": 0.208696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 264.757413, "fair_value_reference": 335.621767, "structural_low": 230.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.02952, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.007803, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.129032, "worst_return": -0.00641, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.064342, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.043957, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064342, "worst_return": 0.064342, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.218223, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.168118, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.218223, "worst_return": 0.218223, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 266.188286, "fair_value": 335.861587, "relative_strength": -11.661687, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.708605, "energy": 35.69251, "activity_lines": [ 276.933333, 272.545455, 262.128571, 261.527102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 286.0, "volume": 384164, "typical_volume": 1044049.45, "trend": 265.322884, "fair_value": 335.792934, "relative_strength": -9.834413, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.526473, "energy": 49.997155, "activity_lines": [ 280.533333, 275.963636, 265.1, 262.805277 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 278.0, "volume": 177423, "typical_volume": 1040739.4, "trend": 264.757413, "fair_value": 335.621767, "relative_strength": -11.933403, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.269918, "energy": 32.541076, "activity_lines": [ 280.466667, 277.272727, 267.185714, 263.623155 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }