{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9c88814-522c-436e-b687-df50e3240d08", "symbol": "E960", "name": "Amundi STOXX Europe 600 ESG II UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.314, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.891, "architecture_energy": 47.724, "architecture_maturity": 59.445, "architecture_confidence": 53.83, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.11, "rotation_up": 43.1, "upward_expansion": 71.07, "deceleration": 70.7, "rotation_down": 28.25, "downward_expansion": 11.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.154069, 64.126868, 63.446434, 62.621064 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 65.199997, "trend_reference": 61.823178, "distance_from_trend": 0.054621, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.908751, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.23231, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.02901, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.059301, "excess_performance": -0.005338, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054621, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033003, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.23231, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034112, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01029, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048522, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.059301, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.288505, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4100, "relative_activity": 0.303664, "balance": 2.288505, "dry_up": 1.402559, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01857, "annualized_volatility": 0.162083, "from_high_reference": -0.004428, "from_low_reference": 0.21122 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.823178, "fair_value_reference": 52.908751, "structural_low": 55.139999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.00826, "positive_rate": 0.552632, "directional_follow_through": 0.552632, "median_excess_return": 0.003048, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.074032, "worst_return": -0.098232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.016107, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.012693, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.077702, "worst_return": -0.033886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.068764, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.007019, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.121353, "worst_return": -0.126113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 13639.45, "trend": 61.676512, "fair_value": 52.771645, "relative_strength": 1.798636, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.729346, "energy": 29.839553, "activity_lines": [ 63.686426, 63.877329, 63.144126, 62.393742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.199997, "volume": 4100, "typical_volume": 13501.75, "trend": 61.823178, "fair_value": 52.908751, "relative_strength": 1.02901, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.890824, "energy": 47.724463, "activity_lines": [ 64.154069, 64.126868, 63.446434, 62.621064 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }