{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9c93cd9-4d5c-4084-8cdb-0f620df4450c", "symbol": "603937", "name": "Jiangsu Lidao New Materials Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.897, "architecture_energy": 80.181, "architecture_maturity": 15.048, "architecture_confidence": 86.45, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.46, "rotation_up": 11.12, "upward_expansion": 21.66, "deceleration": 34.2, "rotation_down": 75.4, "downward_expansion": 92.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.400667, 11.358727, 12.775, 13.130258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.15, "trend_reference": 13.323, "distance_from_trend": -0.163101, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.750928, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.03712, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.114885, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.144939, "excess_performance": -0.101735, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.163101, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005647, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.03712, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.740279, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.564839, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.144939, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.179925, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23370862, "relative_activity": 0.50519, "balance": 0.179925, "dry_up": 0.710357, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14129, "annualized_volatility": 0.721956, "from_high_reference": -0.409428, "from_low_reference": 0.287529 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.323, "fair_value_reference": 10.750928, "structural_low": 8.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.02667, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.013938, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.239482, "worst_return": -0.178344, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.136917, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.1154, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.392822, "worst_return": -0.196621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.179282, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.147148, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.459774, "worst_return": -0.137641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 13.667333, 14.413091, 14.413048, 14.055892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 14.69, "volume": 7951976, "typical_volume": 41083538.15, "trend": 13.598, "fair_value": 10.797559, "relative_strength": 12.20103, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.857831, "energy": 16.296517, "activity_lines": [ 13.948, 14.384, 14.466619, 14.130602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.18, "volume": 67499461, "typical_volume": 43714257.3, "trend": 13.550333, "fair_value": 10.799366, "relative_strength": -13.591172, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.80186, "energy": 35.056403, "activity_lines": [ 13.041333, 13.701455, 14.177809, 13.974602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.88, "volume": 45498657, "typical_volume": 45329203.75, "trend": 13.495667, "fair_value": 10.789292, "relative_strength": -18.818561, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.303647, "energy": 56.765688, "activity_lines": [ 11.914, 12.856545, 13.773571, 13.737806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.44, "volume": 34866070, "typical_volume": 46059147.8, "trend": 13.410333, "fair_value": 10.77209, "relative_strength": -23.261483, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.692589, "energy": 69.901022, "activity_lines": [ 10.886667, 12.095273, 13.344381, 13.47615 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.25, "volume": 27713240, "typical_volume": 46513827.15, "trend": 13.351, "fair_value": 10.758561, "relative_strength": -16.958328, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.011102, "energy": 80.884853, "activity_lines": [ 10.38, 11.598364, 13.00919, 13.272258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.15, "volume": 23370862, "typical_volume": 46261515.25, "trend": 13.323, "fair_value": 10.750928, "relative_strength": -12.114885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.896784, "energy": 80.180844, "activity_lines": [ 10.400667, 11.358727, 12.775, 13.130258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }