{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9ccd447-b076-43b7-9b39-f61ef2680195", "symbol": "003010", "name": "Guangzhou Ruoyuchen Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.108, "architecture_energy": 22.682, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.264, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.67, "rotation_up": 30.11, "upward_expansion": 19.34, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 26.18, "downward_expansion": 58.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.600001, 24.858925, 25.662422, 27.028824 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.360001, "trend_reference": 29.364815, "distance_from_trend": -0.102327, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.554276, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.348043, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.200469, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.302645, "excess_performance": -0.310045, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102327, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119305, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.348043, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.286107, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.252005, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09192, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.302645, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.519149, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48936675, "relative_activity": 1.317898, "balance": 0.519149, "dry_up": 1.809651, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103498, "annualized_volatility": 0.494874, "from_high_reference": -0.460499, "from_low_reference": 0.228332 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.364815, "fair_value_reference": 19.554276, "structural_low": 21.459999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.044299, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.02924, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.114865, "worst_return": -0.188276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.071156, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.096033, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.26539, "worst_return": -0.229907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.095064, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.048134, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.204514, "worst_return": -0.318069, "sufficient": false }, { 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.690001, "volume": 26842566, "typical_volume": 31122832.5, "trend": 30.697148, "fair_value": 19.089883, "relative_strength": -41.459698, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.018879, "energy": 67.603, "activity_lines": [ 23.356667, 24.13669, 26.357983, 28.187959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.4, "volume": 63267186, "typical_volume": 32366973.05, "trend": 30.425815, "fair_value": 19.211453, "relative_strength": -24.282952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.345039, "energy": 50.218566, "activity_lines": [ 24.298667, 24.35568, 26.219009, 27.910723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.370001, "volume": 84519439, "typical_volume": 34921097.25, "trend": 29.971815, "fair_value": 19.313085, "relative_strength": -32.466924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.87397, "energy": 41.305585, "activity_lines": [ 24.126667, 24.081551, 25.812131, 27.455509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.65, "volume": 72063230, "typical_volume": 37285060.75, "trend": 29.651815, "fair_value": 19.435114, "relative_strength": -21.128631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.75499, "energy": 28.62407, "activity_lines": [ 25.068667, 24.495298, 25.744681, 27.241199 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.360001, "volume": 48936675, "typical_volume": 37132367.8, "trend": 29.364815, "fair_value": 19.554276, "relative_strength": -25.200469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.107798, "energy": 22.682302, "activity_lines": [ 25.600001, 24.858925, 25.662422, 27.028824 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }