{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9d0beb1-9900-4ca4-9625-0974d2474a96", "symbol": "C04", "name": "Casa Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.108, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.519, "architecture_energy": 15.144, "architecture_maturity": 19.691, "architecture_confidence": 58.099, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.88, "rotation_up": 40.69, "upward_expansion": 29.99, "deceleration": 33.88, "rotation_down": 22.48, "downward_expansion": 47.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1138, 0.111491, 0.111986, 0.112383 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.114, "trend_reference": 0.114364, "distance_from_trend": -0.003184, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.09753, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.168866, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.61922, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.136364, "excess_performance": -0.291199, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003184, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036923, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.168866, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014032, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.176192, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056384, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136364, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 19.555556, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15300, "relative_activity": 0.168409, "balance": 19.555556, "dry_up": 0.281783, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095816, "annualized_volatility": 0.403454, "from_high_reference": -0.263604, "from_low_reference": 0.295455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.114364, "fair_value_reference": 0.09753, "structural_low": 0.088, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.00962, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.004684, "regime_survival": 0.380952, "best_return": 0.492064, "worst_return": -0.231712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.096015, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.033562, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.26924, "worst_return": -0.283949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.133327, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.121679, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.38462, "worst_return": -0.056953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.172412, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.158511, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.530535, "worst_return": 0.1, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026552, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.110087, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040986, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033897, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024585, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117575, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028037, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121495, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.106796, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008696, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.071825, "volume": 130000, "typical_volume": 14795.0, "trend": 0.076134, "fair_value": 0.060453, "relative_strength": 1.643087, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.096497, "energy": 34.042949, "activity_lines": [ 0.1086, 0.110018, 0.111243, 0.112597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.114, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 94450.0, "trend": 0.115481, "fair_value": 0.097021, "relative_strength": -16.968888, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.836605, "energy": 15.456277, "activity_lines": [ 0.1106, 0.110345, 0.111448, 0.112488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.115, "volume": 7200, "typical_volume": 93285.0, "trend": 0.115147, "fair_value": 0.097276, "relative_strength": -16.326725, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.559045, "energy": 12.156769, "activity_lines": [ 0.112667, 0.110964, 0.111776, 0.112457 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.114, "volume": 15300, "typical_volume": 90850.0, "trend": 0.114364, "fair_value": 0.09753, "relative_strength": -17.61922, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.51948, "energy": 15.143901, "activity_lines": [ 0.1138, 0.111491, 0.111986, 0.112383 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }