{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9d15219-d526-4027-b335-160ff1d57605", "symbol": "300696", "name": "Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corporation", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.863, "architecture_energy": 87.482, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.231, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.63, "rotation_up": 8.26, "upward_expansion": 21.97, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 80.39, "downward_expansion": 97.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.061333, 22.962201, 27.424346, 28.815556 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.6, "trend_reference": 30.23427, "distance_from_trend": -0.318654, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.880474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.013432, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.848567, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.357455, "excess_performance": -0.364855, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.318654, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014675, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.013432, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.958454, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.308486, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.506292, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.357455, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.246297, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30686110, "relative_activity": 0.90919, "balance": 0.246297, "dry_up": 1.176172, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.177442, "annualized_volatility": 0.590163, "from_high_reference": -0.536853, "from_low_reference": 0.176471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.23427, "fair_value_reference": 20.880474, "structural_low": 17.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.011628, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.001891, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.377664, "worst_return": -0.328235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.030042, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.021836, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.400682, "worst_return": -0.394486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.196973, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.069611, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.472293, "worst_return": -0.204136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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23.549999, "volume": 45089019, "typical_volume": 31827756.1, "trend": 31.385936, "fair_value": 20.979489, "relative_strength": -26.596011, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.896311, "energy": 58.258613, "activity_lines": [ 27.624, 29.851742, 31.689595, 31.725776 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.9, "volume": 49107316, "typical_volume": 32919145.55, "trend": 31.155936, "fair_value": 20.950347, "relative_strength": -31.560747, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.555527, "energy": 86.441197, "activity_lines": [ 24.505333, 27.635909, 30.553699, 30.984748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.23, "volume": 51753206, "typical_volume": 33439079.4, "trend": 30.90527, "fair_value": 20.921113, "relative_strength": -33.798771, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.588512, "energy": 92.181296, "activity_lines": [ 22.001333, 25.662053, 29.415566, 30.215333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.219999, "volume": 27241505, "typical_volume": 33449467.2, "trend": 30.61127, "fair_value": 20.893218, "relative_strength": -32.528835, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.448563, "energy": 91.239644, "activity_lines": [ 20.456, 24.045485, 28.330527, 29.461444 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.6, "volume": 30686110, "typical_volume": 33751057.45, "trend": 30.23427, "fair_value": 20.880474, "relative_strength": -30.848567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.862613, "energy": 87.482477, "activity_lines": [ 20.061333, 22.962201, 27.424346, 28.815556 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }