{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9d5c4fd-7717-4b16-bbf4-e4b8a6d819db", "symbol": "UJUL", "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Ultra Buffer ETF - July", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.822, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.104, "architecture_energy": 72.946, "architecture_maturity": 76.585, "architecture_confidence": 62.992, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.47, "rotation_up": 61.92, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.47, "rotation_down": 27.42, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.9377, 40.810113, 40.574824, 40.198349 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 41.47, "trend_reference": 39.754987, "distance_from_trend": 0.04314, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.799652, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.191679, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.469464, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.062244, "excess_performance": -0.063381, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04314, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018607, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.191679, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001206, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054695, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003503, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062244, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.2596, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60241, "relative_activity": 0.300412, "balance": 0.2596, "dry_up": 2.486511, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007119, "annualized_volatility": 0.058473, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.11299 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.754987, "fair_value_reference": 34.799652, "structural_low": 37.591, "invalidation": 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.91, "volume": 250955, "typical_volume": 107961.1, "trend": 39.486153, "fair_value": 34.497217, "relative_strength": -5.135798, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.260186, "energy": 93.160877, "activity_lines": [ 40.713233, 40.609945, 40.209002, 39.871292 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.67, "volume": 1509441, "typical_volume": 182532.75, "trend": 39.553313, "fair_value": 34.571256, "relative_strength": -4.055942, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.722306, "energy": 86.5335, "activity_lines": [ 40.716253, 40.637315, 40.296001, 39.947669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.5285, "volume": 308075, "typical_volume": 195305.25, "trend": 39.60732, "fair_value": 34.643454, "relative_strength": -3.686263, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.156452, "energy": 70.062655, "activity_lines": [ 40.66346, 40.631047, 40.362287, 40.010584 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.72, "volume": 116704, "typical_volume": 199717.85, "trend": 39.67232, "fair_value": 34.719044, "relative_strength": -4.10079, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.264452, "energy": 63.308949, "activity_lines": [ 40.6776, 40.655262, 40.43815, 40.08237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.47, "volume": 60241, "typical_volume": 200528.05, "trend": 39.754987, "fair_value": 34.799652, "relative_strength": -5.469464, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.103656, "energy": 72.945955, "activity_lines": [ 40.9377, 40.810113, 40.574824, 40.198349 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }