{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9e88785-747b-4188-9dfc-ea0e6b3193a0", "symbol": "BHYB", "name": "XTRACKERS USD HIGH YIELD BB-B EX FINANCIALS ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.884, "architecture_energy": 21.046, "architecture_maturity": 15.114, "architecture_confidence": 77.109, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.08, "rotation_up": 30.21, "upward_expansion": 53.49, "deceleration": 87.5, "rotation_down": 27.12, "downward_expansion": 19.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.736916, 53.753072, 53.734572, 53.647141 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 53.9763, "trend_reference": 53.563562, "distance_from_trend": 0.007706, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.787923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.084124, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.509494, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.007766, "excess_performance": -0.117859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007706, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005691, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.084124, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002136, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095095, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004855, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007766, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.476917, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1195, "relative_activity": 0.001303, "balance": 1.476917, "dry_up": 1.06064, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004959, "annualized_volatility": 0.037915, "from_high_reference": -0.002366, "from_low_reference": 0.048659 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.563562, "fair_value_reference": 49.787923, "structural_low": 52.511198, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.012325, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.027604, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.012325, "worst_return": 0.012325, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.0331, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.067123, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0331, "worst_return": 0.0331, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.05705, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.153284, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.05705, "worst_return": 0.05705, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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49.732033, "relative_strength": -6.796093, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.849082, "energy": 14.883173, "activity_lines": [ 53.649473, 53.733646, 53.689403, 53.611466 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.647621, "volume": 3890345, "typical_volume": 917302.9, "trend": 53.543493, "fair_value": 49.759037, "relative_strength": -7.176859, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.084074, "energy": 17.979326, "activity_lines": [ 53.629008, 53.714056, 53.698151, 53.619218 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.9763, "volume": 1195, "typical_volume": 917349.5, "trend": 53.563562, "fair_value": 49.787923, "relative_strength": -9.509494, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.883527, "energy": 21.045678, "activity_lines": [ 53.736916, 53.753072, 53.734572, 53.647141 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }