{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9eaff46-0799-4889-8612-c88a60371a10", "symbol": "MAXI", "name": "SIMPLIFY BITCOIN STRATEGY PLUS INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.375, "architecture_energy": 28.962, "architecture_maturity": 29.76, "architecture_confidence": 69.605, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.34, "rotation_up": 25.06, "upward_expansion": 15.09, "deceleration": 65.54, "rotation_down": 33.0, "downward_expansion": 60.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.02978, 8.952134, 9.42216, 9.682891 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.1333, "trend_reference": 10.291265, "distance_from_trend": -0.112519, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.018755, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.391874, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.24193, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.164353, "excess_performance": -0.351807, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112519, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174539, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.391874, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170767, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.452419, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023429, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.164353, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.323636, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54787, "relative_activity": 0.51093, "balance": 0.323636, "dry_up": 0.508739, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095082, "annualized_volatility": 0.43667, "from_high_reference": -0.668272, "from_low_reference": 0.114819 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.291265, "fair_value_reference": 15.018755, "structural_low": 8.19263, 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.222175, "energy": 75.92986, "activity_lines": [ 8.682264, 9.276459, 9.809206, 10.252461 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.189301, "volume": 46668, "typical_volume": 134704.35, "trend": 11.001961, "fair_value": 14.971072, "relative_strength": -50.389096, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.144957, "energy": 53.174708, "activity_lines": [ 8.85154, 9.154551, 9.737006, 10.122898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.189201, "volume": 63499, "typical_volume": 121680.95, "trend": 10.834352, "fair_value": 14.983006, "relative_strength": -46.916527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.013802, "energy": 46.312595, "activity_lines": [ 8.973041, 9.070496, 9.668669, 10.005945 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.089634, "volume": 52051, "typical_volume": 115929.65, "trend": 10.661004, "fair_value": 14.995491, "relative_strength": -45.256804, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.235462, "energy": 34.222913, "activity_lines": [ 9.043993, 9.011269, 9.592128, 9.893383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.7359, "volume": 47871, "typical_volume": 109920.3, "trend": 10.470818, "fair_value": 15.006271, "relative_strength": -46.349586, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.183007, "energy": 33.089344, "activity_lines": [ 8.981749, 8.927569, 9.485133, 9.769183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.1333, "volume": 54787, "typical_volume": 107229.9, "trend": 10.291265, "fair_value": 15.018755, "relative_strength": -45.24193, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.375496, "energy": 28.961722, "activity_lines": [ 9.02978, 8.952134, 9.42216, 9.682891 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }