{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9eca80a-de27-4f38-9536-dd054e9bfe5f", "symbol": "MRO", "name": "Melrose Industries PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.364, "architecture_energy": 34.347, "architecture_maturity": 45.856, "architecture_confidence": 93.777, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.45, "rotation_up": 23.3, "upward_expansion": 3.85, "deceleration": 54.71, "rotation_down": 47.58, "downward_expansion": 77.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 470.866667, 472.98, 479.807144, 494.353022 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 485.4, "trend_reference": 524.319786, "distance_from_trend": -0.074229, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 543.501727, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.106903, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.039097, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.229452, "excess_performance": -0.280688, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.074229, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071718, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.106903, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043444, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200391, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051301, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.229452, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.49763, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29290819, "relative_activity": 1.529733, "balance": 0.49763, "dry_up": 1.220932, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068597, "annualized_volatility": 0.447503, "from_high_reference": -0.291321, "from_low_reference": 0.184191 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 524.319786, "fair_value_reference": 543.501727, 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.146658, "energy": 32.205079, "activity_lines": [ 476.56, 475.545456, 486.187417, 506.680847 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 470.4, "volume": 14975783, "typical_volume": 18484119.2, "trend": 534.172627, "fair_value": 544.232175, "relative_strength": -22.337276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.096446, "energy": 29.736218, "activity_lines": [ 474.453333, 474.363637, 483.809781, 502.317999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 454.3, "volume": 34341554, "typical_volume": 18865859.85, "trend": 528.984517, "fair_value": 543.751892, "relative_strength": -25.461158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.056097, "energy": 42.188701, "activity_lines": [ 467.02, 470.341818, 480.220478, 497.164927 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 485.4, "volume": 29290819, "typical_volume": 19147672.05, "trend": 524.319786, "fair_value": 543.501727, "relative_strength": -20.039097, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.364416, "energy": 34.347392, "activity_lines": [ 470.866667, 472.98, 479.807144, 494.353022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }