{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d9ede205-a4e8-4be1-89a2-77730916acd7", "symbol": "AG", "name": "First Majestic Silver Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.294, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.953, "architecture_energy": 42.451, "architecture_maturity": 21.108, "architecture_confidence": 88.196, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.9, "rotation_up": 19.19, "upward_expansion": 5.39, "deceleration": 50.1, "rotation_down": 55.93, "downward_expansion": 78.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.313333, 23.683091, 25.027977, 26.468515 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.639999, "trend_reference": 28.386843, "distance_from_trend": -0.096765, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.624882, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.881851, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.752087, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.14606, "excess_performance": -0.266481, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.096765, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039188, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.881851, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.564133, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037521, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.377484, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.14606, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.615833, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8256900, "relative_activity": 1.296637, "balance": 0.615833, "dry_up": 1.254359, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124467, "annualized_volatility": 0.813587, "from_high_reference": -0.412616, "from_low_reference": 1.247988 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.386843, "fair_value_reference": 13.624882, "structural_low": 19.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.007553, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.028751, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.378981, "worst_return": -0.182595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.091005, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.062953, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.420677, "worst_return": -0.223582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.073078, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.007664, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.144271, "worst_return": -0.286026, "sufficient": true 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"2026-07-24", "close": 22.99, "volume": 6498400, "typical_volume": 6634065.0, "trend": 28.441326, "fair_value": 13.43185, "relative_strength": -10.103573, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.85908, "energy": 52.397495, "activity_lines": [ 23.413334, 24.127637, 25.624638, 27.124611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.040001, "volume": 11793000, "typical_volume": 6795745.0, "trend": 28.40817, "fair_value": 13.514989, "relative_strength": -17.826626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.129189, "energy": 64.009336, "activity_lines": [ 22.498, 23.434364, 25.083707, 26.647107 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.639999, "volume": 8256900, "typical_volume": 6367935.0, "trend": 28.386843, "fair_value": 13.624882, "relative_strength": -3.752087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.953025, "energy": 42.451063, "activity_lines": [ 23.313333, 23.683091, 25.027977, 26.468515 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }